【粤开宏观】防范化解地方债务风险：形势与应对

www.ykzq.com 1 / 24 | 20230104 S0300520110001 010-83755580 luozhiheng@ykzq.com 13681810367 2022-12-18 20232022-12-19 2022-12-21 2022-12-29 2022-12-30 GDP 2021105.4%26.7% 259.5%65.7% 71.8%59.2% 24.5% 2014-2021202158.2%20149.81/10 70%62.6%50%~70% /201420211.0EBITDA2014-2021/120210.02%EBITDA/20215.0%2021EBIT/2.8 EBITDA/3.9 ROA1%20142.9%20211.4%20141.5%20210.6% ............................................................................................................................. 5 ............................................................................................................................. 8 .................................................................................................................................... 8 ............................................................................... 20 —— .................................................................................................................... 21 1 GDP ................................................................... 5 2 GDP ...................................................................... 6 3 ................................................................................................................................ 6 4 GDP ..................................................................................... 7 5 ........................................................................................................................ 7 6 ............................................................................................................. 7 7 2021 ................................................................................................. 8 8 2021 ................................................................................................................... 9 9 2021 ................................................................................................................. 10 10 2021 ............................................................................................................... 11 11 2021 .................................................................................. 12 12 ............................................................................................................. 13 13 ......................................................................................................... 13 14 ............................................................................................................................... 14 15 ............................................................................................................. 15 16 ............................................................................................................. 15 17 ............................................................................................................. 17 18 / ................................................................................................. 17 19 / .................................................................................. 17 20 EBITDA/.................................................................................................. 18 21 EBITDA/.................................................................................................. 18 22 EBIT/ ....................................................................................................... 19 23 ROE .............................................................................................................. 19 24 ROA .............................................................................................................. 20 20082021GDP17.7%GDP15.1%20152022 2012 GDP 10 15 20 1GDP wind 2GDP wind 3 wind -10-505101520253035401994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021GDP现价同比（%）全国公共财政收入同比（%）510152025303540195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021一般公共预算收入/GDP税收/GDP1994年分税制，两个比重上升经济下行，减税降费一般公共预算收入（1）其中：税收收入政府性基金预算收入（2）其中：土地出让金其中：国有土地收益基金国有资本经营预算收入（3）社会保险基金预算收入（4）其中：财政补贴合计(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-(5)GDP现价一般公共预算/GDP广义宏观税负2010831027321136785281981025#N/A17071#N/A41211920.2%20111038748973841363311401094#N/A25758#N/A48794021.3%20121172541006143753526692897149631411#N/A53858021.8%201312921011053152269391421260171335994737221181459296321.8%35.7%201414037011917554114404801414200840439844722848364356321.8%35.5%2015152269124922423383078410252551463541024423326868885822.1%33.9%2016159605130361466433564011902609501121108924788174639521.4%33.2%2017172593144370614804999717712581584381235228273983203620.7%34.0%2018183360156403754796291120442906790031677732397091928119.9%35.2%2019190390158000845187067917643972831521910334292998651519.3%34.8%20201829141543129349182159189347757586421016336028101356718.0%33.2%2021