【粤开策略大势研判】关注春节前“日历效应”布局机会

www.ykzq.com 1 / 15 | 202312 S0300520100001 010-83755578 chenmengjie@ykzq.com chengjiayi @ykzq.com --2022-12-25 -12262022-12-26 -12292022-12-29 21-12272022-12-29 202312022-12-29 2022123.22% 6328.271.6%29.0249128 企业生产经营压力加大，1-11月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额77179.6亿元，累计同比下降3.6%，前值为-3.0%，但结构有所改善，中下游成本压力有所减轻。疫情管控措施方面继续优化，国家卫健委宣布自1月8日起实施“乙类乙管”，再次放宽中外人员出入境管理，有序恢复受理内地居民旅游、商务赴港签注。 55 A1120222 A 14A201310 2013A 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 2 / 15 510570%5103.32%2.71% 5101201351060% 510 A1060%40%1580%2.32% 105105 5105 A55→→→→→→ 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 15 “” ........................................................................................................ 4 ...................................................................................................................... 4 ................................................................................................................................. 4 ................................................................................................................................. 7 ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 ............................................................................................................................... 12 ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 1 10510 ................................................................. 5 2 10% ......................................................................................... 5 3 10 ....................................................................................................... 5 4 10% ...................................................................................... 5 5 10 .................................................................................................... 5 6 10510 .................................................. 6 7 10510 ................................................................. 7 8 10% ......................................................................................... 7 9 10 ....................................................................................................... 7 10 10% .................................................................................... 7 11 10 .................................................................................................. 7 12 10510 ................................................ 8 13 A% ........................................................................................................... 9 14 .................................................................................................... 9 15 % ............................................................................................................. 10 16 % ................................................................................................................. 10 17 .............................................................................................. 11 18 ......................................................................................................... 12 19 ............................................................................................................................ 12 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 4 / 15 2022123.22% 6328.271.6%29.0249128 企业生产经营压力加大，1-11月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额77179.6亿元，累计同比下降3.6%，前值为-3.0%，但结构有所改善，中下游成本压力有所减轻。疫情管控措施方面继续优化，国家卫健委宣布自1月8日起实施“乙类乙管”，再次放宽中外人员出入境管理，有序恢复受理内地居民旅游、商务赴港签注。 55 A 112022 2 14A201310 2013A510570%520182021A510 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 5 / 15 3.32%2.71% 110510 wind 5101 210% 310 wind wind 201352.40%2.32%80%70%102.62%2.27%60% 410% 510 -0.301.030.381.452.440.421.79-0.50元旦后5个交易日元旦后10个交易日上证50沪深300中证500中证100040%50%70%70%70%60%70%50%元旦后5个交易日元旦后10个交易日上证50沪深300中证500中证1000%年份后5日后10日后5日后10日后5日后10日后5日后10日2022-1.27-2.70-3.03-3.32-6.83-4.58-2.14-2.6020212.792.695.863.886.224.173.082.0320200.551.312.655.193.597.011.663.3820191.313.072.104.251.041.262.254.3620183.093.123.102.423.05-1.142.922.0820172.18-0.011.52-4.56-0.02-6.691.79-2.972016-9.97-18.03-14.02-21.06-17.14-22.15-13.72-22.4920151.574.382.824.705.5411.401.023.412014-3.39-4.38-3.94-5.587.718.50-2.35-3.4120130.640.700.592.113.837.630.981.48涨幅中位数0.971.001.812.273.322.711.341.75胜率70%60%70%60%70%60%70%60%上证指数深证成指创业板指万得全A 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 6 / 15 行业胜率胜率排名赔率赔率排名涨幅中位数涨幅排名综合排名胜率胜率排名赔率赔率排名涨幅中位数涨幅排名综合排名石油石化80.0%1146.9%14.18%1170.0%2124.4%23.44%41农林牧渔80.0%199.3%43.60%2270.0%246.0%222.70%69钢铁80.0%1127.0%22.21%10350.0%2078.3%70.06%2421国防军工70.0%1183.7%63.25%3460.0%957.9%131.08%1613煤炭80.0%179.1%82.01%13560.0%939.4%260.35%2022有色金属70.0%1181.5%72.70%5660.0%950.5%171.30%1416家用电器80.0%149.8%192.32%8760.0%9123.3%33.78%22电力设备80.0%136.3%262.77%4860.0%968.5%82.09%105机械设备70.0%1161.5%152.32%7950.0%20113.2%41.66%1211计算