大宗商品宏观&中观周度观察：海外滞胀预期加大，国内经济底仍需等待

02012669F3048194Z0015547qutao@citicsf.com&20221204 1202412%20242FOMC3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25%312101250bp12CPI50bp11ISMPMI2020411ISMPMI4949.750.247.248.549.251.552.3352.550.9.10PCE10PCE6%0.3%PCE5%0.2%0.3%0.4%10CPI2%1010+0.7%+0.7%+0.8% 21126.320+8.8+4.5+4.2-3-1.5113.7%62.2%62.1%112021611CPI+10%-0.1%CPI+5%+0%13.6%13.1%1134.9%41.5%6.1%6.1%4.2%4.3%111250bp2021611121175bp 3197931231210910PPIPMI202211PMIPMI 48.0%49.2%1155.4%2.846.9%2 49PVCPVC12101134121111101111 &PMI 6111250bp11ISMPMIMarkitPMI11PCE2%111175bpPMIWind Bloomberg 2022-112022-102022-092022-082022-072022-062022-052022-042022-032022-022022-012021-122021-1148.849.449.850.351.152.252.352.352.953.753.254.354.24950.250.952.852.85356.155.457.158.657.658.861.147.146.448.449.649.852.154.655.556.558.258.75858.446.245.147.849.149.35254.854.656.958.459.857.457.448.347.247.750.649.551.454.655.754.757.255.555.655.948.446.548.34848.550.951.954.555.858.358.36262.848.751.451.551.151.853.156.459.159.457.859.458.359.948.448.149.748.849.151.153.854.854.657.857.95958.845.744.74949.948.752.653.853.354.256.956.256.257.148.751.451.551.151.853.156.459.159.457.859.458.359.948.448.149.748.849.151.153.854.854.657.857.95958.845.744.74949.948.752.653.853.354.256.956.256.257.144.749.650.249.352.55452.458.555.753.248.448.454.846.546.248.447.352.152.854.655.855.25857.357.958.14950.750.851.552.152.753.353.554.152.755.454.354.54849.250.149.44950.249.647.449.550.250.150.350.155.755.355.156.256.453.954.654.754.054.95455.557.644.350.851.151.95454.154.251.852.349.647.849.849.8 7202412%20242FOMC3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25%312101250bp12CPI50bp20241252.3bp4.35 4.71 4.86 4.92 4.89 4.84 4.75 4.60 4.43 4.25 3.54.04.55.0-0.30-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.152022/12/12023/3/12023/6/12023/9/12023/12/1%%2022/12/22022/11/252022/11/22022/10/44.104.154.204.254.304.354.404.454.504.552022-09-222022-10-122022-11-012022-11-212022-12-11%12 8PMI1111Markit PMI11ISM11ISMPMI2020411ISMPMI4949.750.247.248.549.251.552.3352.550.925303540455055606570752020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/07:MarkitPMI::MarkitPMI::203040506070802018/01 2018/08 2019/03 2019/10 2020/05 2020/12 2021/07 2022/02 2022/09:ISM:PMI::ISM:PMI::(ISM):PMI:ISM:PMI:303540455055606570752020-01 2020-05 2020-10 2021-02 2021-07 2021-12 2022-04 2022-09 2023-01:ISM:PMI:(ISM):PMI 9PCE10PCE101010+0.7%+0.7%+0.8%10PCE10PCE6%0.3%PCE5%0.2%0.3%0.4%10CPI2%-2-10123456782000/10 2003/10 2006/10 2009/10 2012/10 2015/10 2018/10 2021/10%:PCE::PCE:(3.0)(2.5)(2.0)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.00.51.01.52021/052021/082021/112022/022022/052022/08%::::-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/9 2022/10% 101010Prodco10101.3%1%0.0%0.7%0.3%8101 1 1 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 1 -6-4-20246%2022-102022-092022-082022-07-60-50-40-30-20-100102030402020/01 2020/05 2020/10 2021/03 2021/08 2022/01 2022/06 2022/11%-50510150.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/092020-01=1Wind Bloomberg 11101010101063.27.5%15.2%30107.08%11176.61%10142514104.2%105Wind Bloomberg 17 22 -24 4 -21 11 -5 -9 -30-25-20-15-10-50510152025::30035040045050055060065070075060070080090010001100120013002018/01 2019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01:::1:::517 22 -24 4 -21 11 -5 -9 -30-25-20-15-10-50510152025150123456780.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62020-01 2020-07 2021-02 2021-08 2022-03 2022-09 2023-04%2020-01=1:::::::::30 129NMHC1098050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,0002010/022012/022014/022016/022018/022020/022022/02-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%2010/022012/022014/022016/022018/022020/022022/02-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010203040506070809010020012004200620092012201420172020%NMHCNMHCNCREIF 1310/Wind Bloomberg 8991010111112121313123456789101112%201820192020202120225667788991010123456789101112%2018201920202021202245678910123456789101112%201820192020202120222334455667123456789101112%20182019202020212022455667788123456789101112%201820192020202120223445566123456789101112%/20182019202020212022 141010100.11%80.06%79.88%0.15%79.46%79.51%0.4%1.5%10Wind Bloomberg 80859095100105110-20-15-10-505102019/01 2019/07 2020/01 2020/07 2021/01 2021/07 2022/01 2022/07%::::::::::6065707580852000/02 2003/02 2006/02 2009/02 2012/02 2015/02 2018/02 2021/02%::0.70.80.80.90.91.01.01.11.11.22020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/092020-01=1 150102030405060700501001502002503003504004505002020/01 2020/05 2020/10 2021/03 2021/08 2022/01 2022/06 2022/1101002003004005006002020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09010020030040050060070080090010002020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09010020030040050060070080090010002020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09Wind Bloomberg 16400005000060000700008000090000100000W1 W4 W7 W10 W13 W16 W19 W22 W25 W28 W31 W34 W37