五大趋势重塑欧洲电力市场（2021）

McKinsey&CompanyElectric Power & Natural Gas PracticFive trends reshapingEuropean power marketsUtilities,traders, and large power consumers face significantchallenges addressing the next normal.by Eivind Samseth, Fabian Stockhausen, Xavier Veillard, and Alexander WeissOctober2021 European power markets have entered aperiodand that highlights the importance of developingof unprecedented change, Power prices haveresilient power-asset porttlolios and managing risktouched new highs: baseload week-ahed priceshave risen above 200 per megawatt-hour (MWh)In this article, we explore five trends that will shapein a number of European countriesabout fourthe European power sector in the decade totimes the average historicallevel. That increase hascome and offer some perspectives on how utilitiesbeen prompted largely by a surge in natural-gasand large consumers might respond,and carbon prices, which currently exceed 10O perMWh* and 60 per metric ton, respectively.This clevelopment has affected the cost of powerWhat's ahead for the Europeanproduced by natural-gas power plants, whichpower sector?broadly set prices in European markets.The European power market is undergoing majorchanges. Five trends underpin these developments.At the same time, price volatility is reaching newheights as a result of the uncertein output ofSustained growth in power demend, supportedrenewable assets and a tight supply-and-demandby climate-related targetsbalance in the Europeen power system. NavigatingElectricity demand is expected to increase steadilythis next normal will be a key challenge forin Europe, at a CAGR of about 2 percent until 2035.utilities, traders, and large power consumers,The main factors behind the surge will be theExhibit 1Europe is expected to experience sustained growth in power demandthrough 2035.Forecested power demand, by segment in main EU markets, terawatt-hours1.7% per eor Key driversCAGR3,200 Industry Energy-eficiency measures and the electhifi-2,800calion of industrial prooesses partly cancel each other out0.4Residentiat Electrification of residential heating (heat2,400pumps) and the increase and development of energyefficient buildings party cancel each other out2,0000.6 Commercisl: Energy-efficiency measures lead to1.600slight decrease in demand0.21,200development of appropriate infrastructure, support the Transport: National regulations, as well as the800electrification of transport and mutiple city bans onfuture intemal-combustion-angine vehicles13.6400 Hydrogerc Strong uptake of green hydrogenproduction by electrolysis ater 2030 leads to0strong increase in power demand38.720212025 20302035y Transition incudrge n denand. Oe nend shoun heroanission and disritution grid iexstsehidn ere irdzdsdBlpuria, Caech Rep/tfie, Dermerk, Firiard, Franoe, Gemrery. Greece,Hurgry.Plats EurogeanPower Daiy, 58PGlotal.pglobel.coTTF (Titie Transfer Fscilityl).Five trends reshaping European power markets A future energy system dominated byelectrification of transport and a rampup in theproduction of green hydrogen through electrolysis,intermittent production, withuncertainty about( iqiuxg) Jawod e(qemsua Buunba)total capacity rolloutThe expectation is that more than 650 gigawattsTransport power demand will grow by 14 percent(GW) of intermittent renewable power,includingCAGR as a result of the rollout of the electrificationwind and solar, will be developed from 2021 to 2035.infrastructure and national regulations on emissionsIntermittent renewables will account for about(for example, if cities ban internalcombustion6O percent of total installed capacity in Europe inengines and impose fiscal measures to discourage2035, compared with about 35 percent in 2021the use of nonelectric vehicles). The power(Exhibit 2). However, it remains uncertain whetherI/ uoganpoud uaboup/uaajb jo sjuauanbathe pace at which renewables are rolled outexpand by about 40 percent CAGR, absorbingwill be sufficient:23O terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewables output by2035 across Europethe equivalent of nearly aProject permissions have been clelayed inthird of Germany's total consumption, Demend willa number of European countries. As a result, thegrow only modestly in the industrial, commercial,gap between the time projects are proposed andand residential sectors becuse efficiency measurescommissioned is up to seven years.will mostly offset the electrification ofindustrialprocesses and residential equipment.The modernization of the grid faces significantchallenges as the production of renewalbleExhibit 2Intermittent production will dominate the European power sector.Installed cepacity in main EU merkets,Generetion mix in mein EU markets,'gigawattsterawatt-hours1,5003,50012503.0001,0002,500Irtermttent rerewabie energy2,000750latermittent renewatle erergr1,500500 toco25050020212025203020352021202520302035na, Spein, SwedePdard, Portugsl, Romenia, SiovakiFivetrendsreshaping Eurepeanpowermarkets power drives nodalimbalances, requiringprices may also fluctuate more, given t