净零目标迫使气候政策采用向后归纳法（英）

A Net-Zero Target Compels a Backwards Induction Approach to Climate Policy Geoffroy Dolphin, Michael Pahle, Dallas Burtraw, and Mirjam Kosch WP 22-18 October 2022 Resources for the Future i About the Authors Geoffroy Dolphin is a post doctoral fellow at Resources for the Future and a PhD graduate from the University of Cambridge Judge Business School where he is an affiliate of the Energy Policy Research Group. Geoffroy’s research interests span political economy, energy & environmental economics and climate policy. His research aims to inform the development of climate policy designs that are politically sustainable while being environmentally effective. Michael Pahle is head of the working group “Climate and Energy Policy” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He holds a PhD in economics from TU Berlin. His research focuses on emission trading systems, public support for carbon pricing, and regulatory frameworks to achieve net-zero. He is Principle Investigator on “European Climate and Energy Policy” in the BMBF Ariadne Project, Germany’s largest social science Energiewende research project. Dallas Burtraw is the Darius Gaskins Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future. Burtraw has worked to promote efficient control of air pollution and written extensively on electricity industry regulation and environmental outcomes. Burtraw’s current research includes analysis of the distributional and regional consequences of climate policy, the evolution of electricity markets including renewable integration, and the interaction of climate policy with electricity markets. Mirjam Kosch is an enthusiastic environmental scientist and completed her doctorate in economics at ETH Zurich on climate policy in the electricity sector. As part of her doctoral thesis, she empirically analyzed the impact of renewable energy subsidies and carbon pricing. Currently, she is working on the expansion of the European emissions trading system and investigating the interplay of different policy instruments as well as the impact of climate policy on electricity prices. Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany in the Ariadne project (03SFK5S0) and Resources for the Future Comprehensive Climate Policies Program. We are indebted to Lawrence Goulder and Gregory Nemet, as well as participants to the RFF Seminar Series, for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. A Net-Zero Target Compels a Backward Induction Approach to Climate Policy ii About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes of information and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review. The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. You can copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made, and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For more information, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Resources for the Future iii Abstract Jurisdictions around the world increasingly affirm their contributions to the 2015 Paris Agreement by pledging net zero targets. We argue that delivering on a net-zero target compels a backward induction approach to climate policy, which differs from the prevailing approach by stipulating that the objective for designing policy pathways must change from minimizing the cost of the policy to maximizing its credibility. Our argument rests on the premise that private investments play a key role for net zero, and to align them with net zero, getting expectations right is more relevant than getting the prices right. Backward induction compels a dynamically consistent pathway that can overcome the problem that emitters may expect the rules and targets of climate policy as open for constant political renegotiation. We furthermore sketch the main elements for a regulatory strategy to put this approach into action that builds on instilling commi