Evaluation of the Los Angeles Gang Reduction and Youth Development Program: Year 3 Final Report

0 RESEARCH REPORT APRIL 2013 Evaluation of the Los Angeles Gang Reduction and Youth Development Program Year 3 Final Report Terence Dunworth, Ph.D. Dave Hayeslip, Ph.D. Samantha Lowry KiDeuk Kim Cybele Kotonias Laura Pacifici research for safer communities URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center Copyright © April 2013. The Urban Institute and Harder+Company Community Research. All rights reserved. Except for short quotes, no part of this report may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by information storage or retrieval systems, without written permission from the Urban Institute. The Urban Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan policy research and educational organization that examines the social, economic, and governance problems facing the nation. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Table of Contents CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 I.1 OVERVIEW OF THE GRYD PROGRAM ......................................................................................................... 1 I.2 GRYD’S COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY ......................................................................................................... 3 I.3 DATA AND METHODS IN Y3 EVALUATION ................................................................................................... 7 I.4 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT ................................................................................................................ 7 CHAPTER II MEASURING GANG VIOLENCE IN LOS ANGELES .................................................................... 10 II.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 10 II.2 ORGANIZATION OF THE CHAPTERS ....................................................................................................... 10 II.3 DATA SOURCES ..................................................................................................................................... 11 II.4 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ............................................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER III GANG VIOLENCE BEFORE AND AFTER GRYD ......................................................................... 19 III.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 19 III.2 ANNUAL TRENDS IN VIOLENT GANG CRIME IN LOS ANGELES ..................................................................... 19 III.3 MONTHLY TRENDS IN VIOLENT GANG CRIME ........................................................................................... 24 III.4 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED VIOLENT GANG CRIME ...................................................................................... 26 III.4.1 Projections for the City of Los Angeles .................................................................................. 26 III.4.2 Projections for Los Angeles County ........................................................................................ 27 III.4.3 City‐County Comparisons of Actual/Predicted Violence ...................................................... 28 III.5 DID ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT GANG CRIME ................................................................................................ 29 III.5.1 Difference‐in‐Differences Results ........................................................................................... 30 III.6 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 32 CHAPTER IV THE SUMMER NIGHT LIGHTS PROGRAM .............................................................................. 34 IV.1 OVERVIEW OF THE SUMMER NIGHT LIGHTS PROGRAM ............................................................................. 34 IV.2 SNL SURVEY RESULTS .......................................................................................................................... 35 IV.2.1 Survey Sample Demographics ................................................................................................. 38 IV.2.2 Community Assessment ......................................................................................................... 39 IV.2.3 The SNL Experience ................................................................................................................. 45 IV.2.4 Communication and 2011 SNL Effectiveness ......................................................................... 49 IV.3 CONCLUSIONS .....................................