Affordable Housing Needs Assessment for the District of Columbia: Phase II

R E S E A R C H R E P O R T Affordable Housing Needs Assessment for the District of Columbia Phase II Peter Tatian Josh Leopold Elizabeth Oo Gerry Joseph Graham MacDonald Austin Nichols Maia Woluchem Simone Zhang with Katya Abazajian May 2015 H O U S I N G A N D H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A B O U T T H E U R B A N I N S T I T U T E The nonprofit Urban Institute is dedicated to elevating the debate on social and economic policy. For nearly five decades, Urban scholars have conducted research and offered evidence-based solutions that improve lives and strengthen communities across a rapidly urbanizing world. Their objective research helps expand opportunities for all, reduce hardship among the most vulnerable, and strengthen the effectiveness of the public sector. Copyright © May 2015. Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. Cover image by Matthew Johnson. Contents Acknowledgments v Executive Summary 1 Demographic and Housing Profiles 1 Current Housing Needs 2 Projected Changes to DC’s Population and Housing Stock 3 Affordable Housing Development Funding Needs and Challenges 4 Recommendations 5 Introduction 8 Demographic and Housing Profiles 9 Demographics 12 Population and Household Size 12 Housing Stock 22 Current Housing Needs 31 Current Housing Needs 32 Projected Changes to DC’s Population through 2020 46 Projected Changes to the Availability of Low-Income Housing in DC through 2020 55 Projected Housing Needs by Affordability Level 65 Affordable Housing Development Funding Needs and Challenges 69 Recommendations on Policy and Investment Decisions 91 Funding Availability 92 Process of Obtaining Funding 96 DC Regulations 98 Other Recommendations 103 Conclusion 106 Appendix A Demographic and Housing Profiles 108 Appendix B Total Housing Stock Profile 153 Appendix C Projection Methodology 167 Appendix D Affordable Housing Developer Survey 170 Appendix E Affordable Housing Developer Discussion Guide 178 Appendix F Profile of Respondents to Affordable Housing Developer Survey 182 Notes 187 References 189 About the Authors 191 Statement of Independence 193 A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S V Acknowledgments This report was funded by the Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development. We are grateful to our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. It is important to note that funders do not determine our research findings or the insights and recommendations of our experts. E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 1 Executive Summary This report is the second part of a housing study being completed by the Urban Institute for the Washington, DC, Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development (DMPED). DMPED requested an affordable housing needs assessment to measure, quantify, and qualify the need for affordable housing within each ward and neighborhood cluster; to quantify the need to preserve and construct housing units appropriate to meet the needs of DC residents now and in the future; and to help guide investment decisions in affordable housing by the city. Demographic and Housing Profiles Demographic and housing profiles of the city by ward and neighborhood cluster show that DC is a prosperous city with great disparities in income, employment, and education. The analysis of housing and demographic data includes the following key findings. In 2008–12, the majority of households in DC were nonfamily households (either single persons living alone or households in which no one was related to the head of household by birth, marriage, or adoption). Wards 4, 7, and 8 had a slight majority of family households; Wards 7 and 8 consisted primarily of female-led single-parent households; and Wards 3 and 4 had large numbers of married couples without children. Washington, DC, is a diverse city, with 50 percent of residents identifying as black non-Hispanic, 35 percent as white non-Hispanic, 9 percent as Hispanic, 4 percent as Asian or Pacific Islanders, and 2 percent as some other race. Although the number of whites in DC has been growing, a nonwhite majority remains the norm throughout the city with the exception of Wards 2, and 3, which have a white non-Hispanic majority, although some neighborhoods in these wards have a large nonwhite community. More than half (54 percent) of city residents 25 years and over have more than a high school education. This is true of 87 percent of Ward 3 residents but just 21 percent of residents in Ward 7 and 16 percent of residents in Ward 8. Similar disparities exist across the city with respect to income and employment. Construction has been booming throughout DC, with more residential properties built between 2001 and 2010 than were constructed in the previous 30 years. Ward 2 has seen the most new 2 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y construction in the last decade, with more than 4,200 residential properties built since 2001.