Estimating Changes in the Supply of and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia (2016)

Estimating Changes in the Supply of and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia Prepared by REINVESTMENT FUNDPublished MARCH 2017RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY Policy Solutions at Reinvestment FundBill Schrecker, Research Analyst Michael H. Norton, Chief Policy Analyst Ira Goldstein, President Page 1 Estimating Changes in the Supply of and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia Introduction In 2014, Reinvestment Fund conducted an initial analysis of the supply of and demand for child care in Philadelphia to identify areas of the city where targeted investments could help address shortages of high-quality child care. Now in its third year, Reinvestment Fund’s 2016 childcare analysis provides updated estimates to track the change over time in the supply of , demand for, and shortages in child care. Reinvestment Fund’s Childcare Map is an interactive online tool, www.childcaremap.org, that makes the results of this work accessible to the public at no cost. The tool identifies neighborhoods where high-quality child care is scarce in absolute and relative terms, while also providing actionable information for funders, practitioners, and childcare advocates. 2016 Results: Estimating Gaps Between Supply of and Demand for Child Care Estimating the supply of and demand for childcare services requires multiple datasets from multiple sources. The estimates presented in this memo are statistically derived using the methods developed for the initial 2014 study—methods supported by and developed in close consultation with the project’s advisory group, which included local early childhood experts in Philadelphia.1 The 2016 update did not find substantial gaps between the total supply of child care and the demand for care across the city, although total supply declined slightly from 2015. However, while certain neighborhoods saw improvements in the provision of child care over the past year, a shortage of certified and high-quality options continues to exist in many areas of the city. These overall findings mirror those observed in 2014 and 2015. Estimating the Supply of Child Care Across Philadelphia, the total supply of child care has remained relatively constant from 2014 to 2016, with over 95,400 estimated seats in the city. This represents a slight decline of 5% in total seats from 2015. Tables 1 and 2 present the change in the overall number of available seats, seats at certified providers, and seats at high-quality providers throughout the city. Table 1 shows the maximum potential supply of child care is 95,415 seats, if every center in Philadelphia were to enroll at full capacity. 1 https://www.reinvestment.com/childcaremap/pdfs/full.pdf Page 2 Table 1: Estimated Supply of Total Child Care Table 2: Estimated Supply of Certified Child Care Figure 1: Estimated Supply of Total and Certified Child Care As seen in Tables 1 and 2, 73,836 (77%) of all seats are certified with the Office of Child Development and Early Learning (OCDEL). This represents a steady increase in the share of certified seats in the city—a 4.7 percentage point increase from 2015, and a 7.8 percentage point increase since 2014. Among certified seats, 22,000 (30%) are considered high quality, with a Keystone STARS rating of 3 or 4.2 This also represents a steady increase in the share of high-quality childcare seats in the city—a 5.5 percentage point increase from 2015, and an 8.9 2 The Keystone STARS program is the Pennsylvania Quality Ratings and Improvement System (QRIS) operated by OCDEL. http://www.pakeys.org/pages/get.aspx?page=programs_stars #%#%Certified73,836 77.4%4804.7%3,6367.8% High Quality (3-4 STAR)22,008 23.1%4,1445.4%7,3718.6%1-2 STAR26,252 27.5%-2,529-1.0%-4,882-3.4%Not STAR Rated25,576 26.8%-1,1350.3%1,1472.6%Not Certified 21,579 22.6%-5,999-4.7%-9,027-7.8%Total Seats95,415 -5,519-5,391Change from 2014Estimated Supply of Child CareTotal Seats% of All SeatsChange from 2015Estimated Supply of Certified Child CareTotal SeatsShare of Certified Seats#%#% High Quality (3-4 STAR)22,008 29.8%4,1445.5%7,3718.9%1-2 STAR26,252 35.6%-2,529-3.7%-4,882-8.8%Not STAR Rated25,576 34.6%-1,135-1.8%1,147-0.2%Total Certified Seats73,836 100.0%Change from 2015Change from 2014 Page 3 percentage point increase from 2014. An estimated 26,300 certified seats (35%) have lower quality ratings (STAR 1 or STAR 2) and an estimated 25,600 seats (35%) are not rated but are participating in STARS. (See Tables 1 & 2) Overall, the greatest supply of child care continues to be found close to major public transportation routes, as was the case in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the availability of certified, high-quality care continues to be greater in areas with higher rates of poverty and lower incomes. On average, block groups where less