乌克兰战争对全球贸易和投资的影响（英）

Edited by Michele RutaTRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESSTRADE, INVESTMENT AND COMPETITIVENESSEQUITABLE GROWTH, FINANCE & INSTITUTIONS INSIGHT The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and InvestmentPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: TiborCarPhoto / iStock Acknowledgements4About the authors5Executive Summary6M. Ruta1. Effects on trade and income of developing countries11M. Chepeliev, M. Maliszewska and M S E Pereira2. Effects on Food Trade27M. Ruta, N. Rocha and A. Espitia3. Effects on Global Logistics and Connectivity39J F. Arvis, C. Rastogi and D. Saslavsky 4. Effects on Ukraine’s key (non-food) exports and specific GVC44J-C Maur5. The Effects of Russia’s global value-chain participation57D. Winkler, L. Wuester and D. Knight6. Effects on Global FDI70Y. Liu7. Effects on Global Tourism75A. Pio, A. Beath and R C. Kuo8. Long term effects of the war in Ukraine on global value chains80M. RutaContents>>> >>> Acknowledgments This study has been produced by a team coordinated by Michele Ruta (Lead Economist, ETIRI). Individual chapters were authored by Jean François Arvis (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Andrew Beath (Senior Economist, ETIMT), Alvaro Espitia (Consultant, ETIRI), Maksym Chepeliev (Research Economist Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University), David Knight (Lead Economist, EECM1), Ryan Chia Kuo (Young Professional, ETIMT), Yan Liu (Economist, ETIIC), Maryla Maliszewska (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Jean Christophe Maur (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Maria Seara E Pereira (Consultant, ETIRI), Alex Pio (Extended Term Consultant, ETIMT), Cordula Rastogi (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Nadia Rocha (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Michele Ruta (Lead Economist, ETIRI), Daniel Saslavsky (Senior Economist, ETIRI), Deborah Winkler (Senior Consultant, ETIRI), Lucie Wuester (Consultant, ETIRI).This report is an output of Trade, Investment and Competitiveness department. Mona Haddad (Director; TIC), Asya Akhlaque (Practice Manager, ETIIC), Martha Licetti (Practice Manager, ETIMT), Antonio Nucifora (Practice Manager, ETIRI) provided guidance and supervision.The study also benefited from the comments of Jasmin Chakeri (Practice Manager, EECM2), Ana Fernandes (Lead Economist, DECTI), Madhur Gautam (Lead Economist, SAGGL), Sandeep Mahajan (Practice Manager, EECM1), Aaditya Mattoo (Chief Economist, EAP), Lalita Moorty (Regional Director, EECDR), Ilias Skamnelos (Practice Manager, EECF1), Daria Taglioni (Research Manager, DECTI), Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Research Professor and Director, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University).Alvaro Espitia (Consultant, ETIRI) helped coordinating the revision process. Bruna Sofia Simoes developed the cover and interior design. Chris Wellisz edited the text. Nathalie David (Knowledge Management Analyst, EFIOS) managed the publishing process. The team also thanks Aidara Janulaityte and Victoria Fofanah in Washington, D.C., for their assistance in preparing this report and for their support of the project. >>> About the authors The editorMichele Ruta is Lead Economist at the World Bank where he works on trade and regional integration. He holds a PhD in economic