Economics | 13 May 2022 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 4 月份的 TSF 和新贷款显着减速，居民贷款需求收缩是主要原因。4 月份社会融资总额(TSF)同比增长 10.2%，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，主要受私营部门信贷需求疲软拖累， 特别是居民贷款需求疲软，与地产销售持续疲弱一致。总体企业信贷（贷款+债券）则相对平稳。政府发债仍然强劲，是支持社会融资总额增长的主要推动力，体现财政支持加快步伐。 CPI 重回同比2%区间。政府保价稳供措施及需求放缓下，PPI环比和同比增速均有所回落，但步伐仍居高位。同时，由于防疫封锁措施及油价高企，食品价格反弹，4月CPI通胀加速。即使供给瓶颈未来可能舒缓，我们预计在猪周期及企业成本推动下，CPI通胀在下半年仍将继续走升。 价格压力对货币政策大幅宽松形成制约，结构性工具是政策定向支持的主要选择。大宗商品价格居高、消费通胀反弹，将继续制约央行增加流动性宽松的空间。预计中国央行将维持宽松的流动性立场，同时以精准定向支持实体部门。近期央行推出的交通物流、清洁煤炭等再贷款项目是定向支持的体现。 Apr TSF and new loans decelerated, driven by soft borrowing demand from households as housing remained weak. Total social financing (TSF) rose 10.2% YoY in Apr, down 0.4ppt from the previous month. Household loan demand was the main drag despite further property relaxation, while credit, including loans and bonds to the corporate sector, were relatively steady. Government borrowing remained the key driver of TSF growth, consistent with accelerated fiscal support. CPI accelerates to above 2% YoY. PPI slowed on slower demand and government measures to stabilize prices, while CPI rose more than the market expected, driven by rising food prices amid Covid lockdown measures, and high energy prices. While supply issues may ease in the coming months, we expect CPI to pick up in 2H on rising pork prices and industrial costs. Price pressure constrains broad-based monetary easing, and we expect continued reliance on targeted support. Elevated global commodity prices and a likely rebound in CPI inflation in 2H22F will continue to constrain the possibility of broad-based monetary easing, in our view. We expect the PBoC to increase its use of structural tools to support targeted sectors. The latest relending programs announced by the PBoC are such examples. Lulu Jiang (852) 3911 8012 jianglulu@ccbintl.com Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com Ying Zhang (852) 3911 8041 zhangying@ccbintl.com CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: April credit data decelerated while CPI picked up 中国经济评论: 四月社融增速放缓，CPI价格压力上升 Economics | 13 May 2022 CCBI SECURITIES 2 TSF and new loans fell short of expectations Today, the PBoC released total social financing (TSF) data indicating a 10.2% YoY rise in Apr 2022, down 0.4ppt from the month prior (Fig 1). New TSF increased by RMB910.2b, significantly below market consensus for RMB2.2t. Of the total, new loans came in lower than the market had anticipated (Fig 2). Credit to the private sector weakened YoY, dragging overall TSF growth. In particular,  New yuan loans increased by RMB645.4b, lower than the market had expected (cons: RMB1.53t). Outstanding loans rose 10.9% YoY, compared with 11.4% last month. Available data suggests that new loans to the corporate sector increased by RMB578.4b, including RMB320b in short-term loans and bills financings, and RMB265.2b in ML loans. Meanwhile, new loans to households contracted RMB217b in Apr, the second contraction this year, the last having taken place in Feb. Corporate loans and household loans accounted for 21% and 90% of the slowdown in new loans compared with the same period last year.  Outstanding corporate bonds edged up 0.1ppt to 10.3% YoY, the seventh successive month of increase and the highest rate of growth since Apr 2021. Net domestic corporate bond issuance in Apr came to RMB348b, a steady pace of increase compared with the same period last year.  Total renminbi loans and corporate bonds, which represent credit to the private sector, rose 10.7% YoY in Apr, having slowed from 11.2% YoY growth the previous month.  Government borrowing, including outstanding CGB and LGB, grew 16.9% YoY, down 0.1ppt from Mar (Fig 1). The pace of government borrowing has been picking up since Oct 2021. It has been the fastest growing credit channel among all TSF items.  Shadow banking (entrusted + trust + bills) shrunk 12.8% YoY, a pace unchanged from the previous month. Shadow banking continues to drag overall TSF growth. In absolute terms, new shadow banking items fell by RMB317b, after rising by RMB14b in Mar. M2 picked up 10.5% YoY in Apr, higher than market consensus expecting 9.9%, and up from 9.7% in Mar, partly due to the low base last year. M1 rose 5.1% in Apr, up 0.4 ppt from the previous month. More inflation in consumer prices PPI eases less than the market expected. PPI inflation rose at its slowest pace in a year, climbing 8.0% YoY in Apr compared with 8.3% last month, yet still enough to beat the market expectation of 7.8%. In sequential terms, Apr PPI rose 0.6%, easing from a 1.1% gain in Mar. The deceleration in producer prices was across-the-broad, especially in the mining and upstream sectors (Fig 5) as commodity prices inched down from their peaks spu