Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average

*050205120* Rev 1Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT ® Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point AverageJustine Radunzel Julie Noble August 2012ACT Research Report Series2012 (5) For additional copies, write: ACT Research Report Series P.O. Box 168 Iowa City, IA 52243-0168© 2012 by ACT, Inc. All rights reserved. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT® Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average Justine Radunzel Julie Noble iiAbstract This study compared the effectiveness of ACT® Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree completion (year 6 and year 3 for four- and two-year institutions, respectively). The utility of the individual ACT College Readiness Benchmarks for predicting long-term college success was also evaluated. Data for this study included over 190,000 ACT-tested students who enrolled in college as first-time entering students in fall, 2000 through 2006. Over 100 total two- and four-year institutions were represented. Hierarchical logistic models were used to estimate institution-specific probabilities of college success based on ACT scores and HSGPA. First-year college GPA was also included as a predictor in the path analysis models. Accuracy and success rates were calculated using the distributions of ACT scores and HSGPA for each institution’s approximate applicant pool; rates were then summarized across institutions. Direct and indirect effects of ACT score, HSGPA, and first-year academic performance on subsequent college outcomes were also examined. Results were disaggregated by institution type. Both ACT Composite score and HSGPA were effective for predicting long-term college success at both four- and two-year institutions. Across the outcomes, test scores increased prediction accuracy over that for HSGPA alone. ACT scores and HSGPA were primarily indirectly related to subsequent college outcomes (through first-year college GPA). The ACT Benchmarks were also found to be useful for predicting long-term college success, providing further validity evidence for using them as measures of college readiness. iiiAcknowledgments The authors thank Jeff Allen, Jill Crouse, and Richard Sawyer for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this report. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average Introduction There are several student measures that are typically considered in the admissions process, largely because they have been found to identify accurately students who are ready for college and to predict students’ eventual success in college. The top four measures identified by four-year postsecondary institutions (Clinedinst, Hurley, & Hawkins, 2011) are academically related and include grades in college preparatory courses, strength of high school curriculum, standardized test scores (ACT or SAT), and high school grade point average (HSGPA). But, many institutions also use other non-academic measures (e.g., extra-curricular activities and demonstrated interest in the institution) in making admission decisions. They do this to meet other goals that are not directly related to academic success but that closely align with their educational mission, such as maintaining equal opportunity and diversity in student enrollments. While most two-year institutions currently practice open admissions, about one-fifth of them use standardized test scores or HSGPA as part of their admission process (Breland, Maxey, Gernand, Cumming, & Trapani, 2002). In this report, we focus on the use of pre-enrollment achievement measures to identify students who are likely to be successful in college, recognizing that this addresses only one aspect of the admission process. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures, the outcome(s) of interest need to be identified. For making admission decisions, one outcome that is commonly used is first-year academic performance, as measured by first-year college grade point average (GPA). But, as pressure for increased accountability in higher education and higher graduation