行业比较数据跟踪：创业板指/沪深300相对PE下降至历史38%分位数，北向资金流入大金融板块

创业板指/沪深300相对PE下降至历史38%分位数，北向资金流入大金融板块——行业比较数据跟踪20220213请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明仅供机构投资者使用证券研究报告|金融工程报告曹春晓SAC NO：S1120520070003杨国平SAC NO：S11205200700022022年2月13日 2（一）行业基本面与估值（二）行业资金流动（三）行业综合打分风险提示目录 截至2022年2月11日，全部A股PE（TTM）为18.63倍，位于2009年以来49.13%分位数；PB_LF 1.79倍，位于2009年以来33.65%分位数。截至2022年2月11日，主板/创业板/科创板PE（TTM）分别为14.11倍、72.89倍、59.10倍，位于2009年以来38.30%、62.09%、9.83%分位数；PB_LF分别为1.39倍、4.97倍、5.49倍，位于2009年以来17.74%、57.14%、7.57%分位数。3各板块估值分位数小幅下降1.1 各板块估值分位数小幅下降资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所全部A股18.6338.2511.5118.7749.13%全部A股(非金融石油石化)29.3676.9916.8030.7046.49%主板14.1137.709.7515.3638.30%创业板72.89204.6628.1066.0762.09%创业板(剔除温氏股份)60.53218.1128.1066.8839.62%科创板59.10172.0748.1976.149.83%全部A股1.793.861.341.9233.65%全部A股(非金融石油石化)2.685.561.752.7843.04%主板1.393.811.191.6317.74%创业板4.9713.952.204.5957.14%创业板(剔除温氏股份)4.9813.952.204.6057.21%科创板5.4912.944.976.727.57%主要板块对比2022/2/11最大值最小值中位数当前估值所处历史的百分位PE_TTM估值箱型图绝对估值PE(TTM)绝对估值PB_LF 截至2022年2月11日，主要指数中，上证50、沪深300、深证100、创业板指PE（TTM）分别为11.19倍、13.36倍、26.93倍和51.58倍，分别位于历史63.94%、57.44%、77.37%和45.08%分位数，PB_LF分别为1.42倍、1.62倍、3.99倍和6.76倍，位于历史57.04%、49.13%、84.34%和76.54%分位数。1.2 中证500估值仍位于历史相对较低水平中证500指数估值处于历史相对较低水平资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所上证综指13.3634.508.9014.1640.46%上证5011.1927.596.9410.3963.94%上证18011.0730.037.1211.2047.21%沪深30013.3631.918.0112.9457.44%中证50018.8592.7516.0030.732.33%中证100032.68144.8218.9445.9711.56%深证10026.9364.5712.8821.9677.37%深证成指25.7863.4712.1723.9256.13%中小板指33.3364.6118.5331.8061.65%创业板指51.58137.8627.0453.5845.08%创业板5045.34141.8427.2656.0023.77%万得全A18.5838.2411.5118.7648.94%上证综指1.483.851.211.5929.13%上证501.423.731.021.3657.04%上证1801.323.821.091.3933.12%沪深3001.623.901.171.6249.13%中证5001.845.891.512.459.23%中证10002.738.141.712.9341.17%深证1003.995.561.812.9084.34%深证成指3.095.751.702.9955.31%中小板指3.997.692.544.1144.70%创业板指6.7615.012.515.0476.54%创业板507.7616.233.246.2867.98%万得全A1.873.961.402.0134.97%绝对估值PE(TTM)绝对估值PB_LF主要指数对比2022/2/11最大值最小值中位数当前估值所处历史的百分位估值箱型图 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所创业板指/沪深300相对PE位于历史38%分位数截至2022年2月11日，创业板指相对于沪深300指数相对PE（TTM）3.86倍，位于历史38.04%分位数，相对PB_LF为4.18倍，位于历史63.06%分位数。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所创业板指/沪深300相对PB位于历史63%分位数1.3 创业板指/沪深300相对PE下降明显5 6资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所申万一级行业估值与历史分位数1.4 社会服务、食品饮料、汽车等行业估值水平位于历史相对高位2022/2/11最大值最小值中位数当前估值所处历史的百分位2022/2/11最大值最小值中位数农林牧渔51.17119.6414.9542.6163.38%3.377.372.333.60基础化工18.8276.5513.0127.349.40%2.965.301.532.59钢铁9.40153.735.3422.5715.46%1.362.790.721.28有色金属28.06140.3112.9944.559.80%3.387.181.693.17电子30.21118.1022.7449.095.03%3.716.941.653.61家用电器17.3632.3110.5517.2750.60%3.254.851.773.13食品饮料39.6362.9616.5531.2481.44%7.9412.663.005.62纺织服饰20.3263.1415.4129.346.22%1.866.231.502.28轻工制造21.07113.2914.2334.9111.47%2.266.391.452.41医药生物29.2574.3723.4938.514.87%3.588.352.564.31公用事业26.5574.3813.7823.1370.39%1.824.541.262.03交通运输15.0343.299.9519.0617.78%1.623.971.091.65房地产8.5750.876.8015.408.96%0.994.700.831.93商贸零售33.3671.3813.1226.8166.43%2.465.511.272.28社会服务85.06209.6924.9248.9291.62%3.619.802.073.86综合58.33120.5520.7147.0774.22%1.257.751.122.85建筑材料14.7250.699.9822.7324.19%2.334.391.502.23建筑装饰11.0850.117.8813.8131.69%1.023.930.781.63电力设备45.5299.9920.3240.7874.25%5.147.421.463.31国防军工58.95245.8224.1362.9441.81%3.568.381.853.27计算机49.79159.7029.4852.9839.70%3.9215.762.364.18传媒27.73141.8419.4945.148.80%2.3411.481.703.57通信37.9295.069.2340.2335.90%2.136.601.322.62银行6.5519.264.506.8237.07%0.663.480.600.99非银金融14.1766.4910.8018.0511.75%1.495.491.411.97汽车27.7150.289.8018.9079.75%2.304.451.352.34机械设备23.98136.0712.8129.7120.70%2.576.211.602.77煤炭10.2150.800.0013.7522.93%1.486.390.841.51石油石化13.8237.670.0019.5610.49%1.474.221.121.91环保21.2589.450.0038.0010.28%1.848.321.463.40美容护理46.2979.130.0038.6266.74%4.847.231.753.95申万一级行业对比PE（TTM）PB_LF当前估值所处历史的百分位33.97%37.26%73.20%55.25%61.02%54.52%59.86%85.69%20.60%40.78%13.53%32.90%48.59%4.40%55.44%41.91%0.85%56.69%17.71%79.26%58.70%37.14%12.15%13.56%4.40%1.86%47.68%47.05%15.92%17.71%81.93% 7部分行业ROE_TTM历史变化资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所1.5三季报交通运输、银行等行业ROE_TTM环比改善-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.5024681012交通运输_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴）-2-1.5-1-0.500.599.51010.51111.51212.513银行_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴）-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5681012141618钢铁_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴）-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.53024681012有色金属_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴）-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52-2024681012休闲服务_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴）-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5567891011电子_ROE(TTM)标准化变化趋势（右轴） 8申万一级行业市值集中度、强势股占比与MA多头排列打分资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所1.6 交通运输、建筑装饰、农林牧渔行业MA多头排列得分较高农林牧渔171701681152311346.87%35.35%46.46%2.93%0.93基础化工40204112294048234.90%21.31%45.74%1.25%0.40钢铁12126276958221830.41%68.18%43.18%-0.27%0.40有色金属286252242396918738.34%28.13%60.16%3.58%0.47电子661561824746413044.14%9.75%28.97%-7.99%0.20家用电器181452211552418762.67%19.75%35.80%-7.02%0.20食品饮料647425496019351072.48%13.79%22.41%-8.67%0.13纺织服饰74186548154225.09%31.58%39.47%-2.67%0.13轻工制造102437475915535.06%22.96%34.81%-2.93%0.33医药生物702631645239812241.54%13.16%26.56%-19.35%0.00公用事业310572552231418345.21%25.83%60.00%7.48%0.60交通运输328992592541120042.41%64.57%74.02%5.76%1.00房地产191311521749613943.44%69.84%64.29%-0.48%0.60商贸零售129781261150611251.76%49.51%55.34%-1.33%0.27社会服务56357542265638.11%54.05%50.00%-9.76%0.33综合14774913834615.84%56