CCBI SECURITIES 1 ESG简报 2021年12月3日 关于氢能 在本期ESG报告中，我们将讨论如何利用ESG投资来降低通胀风险，并深入探讨氢能领域的投资机会。 氢虽然是最常见的化学元素，但它与其他元素以及与化合物的反应性都很强，因此很少自然存在。高反应性恰恰使氢成为一种很好的燃料，无论是与氧气燃烧还是在电化学反应中结合产生电能。氢资源丰富，零排放，而且非常轻。它可以储存来自可再生能源发电的过剩能量，并从改装的燃煤发电站输送电力，取代煤炭在钢铁、水泥以及其他高热工业中的应用；它可以注入天然气管网；它可以为车辆、轮船和飞机提供动力。多功能性意味着氢能的潜在市场是巨大的。 然而，氢气也有缺点。到目前为止，由于其生产、运输和储存成本很高，几乎没有在上述任何工业/生活应用中使用。制造氢气需要很大的能量，储存氢气需要更多的能量。氢气不是一种能源，它是一种能量载体，很难携带。 虽然在燃料电池载具等某些工业/生活应用中，氢气可能从来都不是最好的解决方案，但随着时间的推移，技术和规模经济将大幅降低制造氢气的成本。成功开发和应用氢气技术的公司，以及能够利用氢产生规模性经济效益的公司，未来具备了指数级增长的前景。例如，绿色氢产能预计未来十年以每年至少50%的增速，以及在之后的二十年里以每年15%的增长。氢的投资案例很具有吸引力，同时，氢气市场是充满活力的。颠覆性技术正在到来。当它们到来时，它们将颠覆某些技术、应用，甚至可能颠覆整个国家的绿色能源战略。 在这份报告中，我们研究氢的潜在市场，以大概地确定氢所涉及不同技术的规模，以及其未来使用的规模。有了这一视野，我们开始研究并发掘投资机会为以下五个主要的氢气市场相关领域：1)氢生产；2)氢生产设备；3)氢基础设施和基础设施设备(运输、储存和分散)；4)燃料电池和燃料电池驱动链；以及5)海运和空运。报告中，我们提供了已经参与每个细分市场的中国公司的例子。一些公司正在跨多个细分市场运营。 每个细分市场中表现最好的公司不一定是市场最大的参与者。对于一些大型公司来说，氢在未来几年内只占他们收入的一小部分。那些氢为主营业务的小公司将迎来最佳的表现机会。表现最好的公司也不一定是属于那些增长最快的行业，如电解槽，将吸引大量的行业进入者。我们认为，表现最好的公司将是那些在生产成本最低的地区并享受早期规模优势的绿色氢生产商；拥有技术壁垒的参与者，以及具有规模优势的利基领域（niche areas）的参与者。技术壁垒的例子包括燃料电池、海运应用和低温冷却。规模优势的例子将包括电解槽和其他上游设备的专用部件制造商。聚合物和陶瓷膜的专业制造商将比电解槽制造商拥有更好的规模经济。这同样适用于阀门、泵、通风口、分离器和储罐的制造商，这些产品必须经过改造，以应对小的氢分子。 中国氢气需求和电解槽产能预计增长 来源: 《中国氢燃料与电池产业发展白皮书(2020)》 氢需求 (百万吨) 产生电解比例 (%) 电解 (百万吨) 电解槽容量 (吉瓦) 2020 33.42 <1 0.1 0.7 2025 35.5 3 1.07 8.1 2030 37.15 10 3.72 38 2050 97 70 67.9 608 2060 130 80 104 930 Mark Jolley 全球策略师 (852) 3911 8255 jolleymark@ccbintl.com 苏国坚博士 研究部主管 (852) 3911 8238 peterso@ccbintl.com 苏卡 (852) 3911 8242 christso@ccbintl.com 姚笛柳 (852) 3911 8269 yaodiliu@ccbintl.com ESG Bulletin | 3 December 2021 CCBI SECURITIES 2 Hedge against Inflation with high ESG scorers  High energy prices and the resulted skyrocketing inflation rates across countries have been a nightmare in 2021, hitting corporate profit margins. However, the negative economic impact from high inflation is likely to extend into 2022 in the form of rising food prices. Energy prices soared more than 80% from Jan to Nov 2021 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank  In Jan-Nov 2021, the United Nations’ FAO Food Price Index rose by 17%, the strength of which is expected to continue into 202, given the rising prices for energy, input material prices (including fertilizers and pesticides) and transportation costs amidst increasing regulatory policies to lower carbon emissions. FAO Food Price Index rising to a ten year high Source: Bloomberg, World Bank  Rising energy and food prices not only drive up inflation but also will hit economic activities along the supply chains of different industries. Even producers of energy and food products will ultimately suffer from a contraction in aggregate consumption. These two drivers, energy and food prices, may become triggers of systematic risk, impacting various industries and unavoidable through simple asset diversification.  Those investors wishing to hedge against the negative impact of rising economic volatility and uncertainty may consider a higher weighting in asset classes with high ESG ratings, including green bonds.  Companies with high ESG ratings are also exposed to financial risk (for earnings, cashflows, and valuation), but to a lesser extent than the market as their exposure to environmental or social factors affords a measure of relief enabling 050100150200250Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Brent oil priceNatural gas (Asia)Natural gas (Europe)CoalUS$/bbl5070901101301501701902012201320142015201620172018201920202021Food Price IndexMeatDairyCerealsEdible oilsSugar ESG Bulletin | 3 December 2021 CCBI SECURITIES 3 them to perform better in relative terms.  For example, companies that derive some of their energy from non-fossil fuels to power their food processing chains or else those firms that sell products at an early stage of the supply chain (like grains or vegetable producers) rather than at a later stage (like hot pot operators) will benefit more.  Wens Foodstuff Group (300498 CH, Not Rated) is principally engaged in the breeding and distribution of broiler chicken and pigs. Being in the upstream of the supply chain, it is relatively less affected by the rapid surge of energy and agriculture commodities prices compared with the restaurant chain, Haidilao (6862 HK, Not Rated) situated in the downstream stage of the supply chain.  Wens Foodstuffs also (1) employs renewable energy during production, (2) enjoys a reduction of energy waste as a result of production process innovation, and (3) increases direct sales locally to decrease the distribution costs to lower its carbon footprint. In terms of price performance, Wens outperformed Haidilao in 2021. Wens Foodstuffs versus Haidilao 2021 share price performance Source: Bloomberg  Generally, against the backdrop of inflation, downstream companies are facing more cost pressure (and regulatory or social risks) than upstream companies as the increase in food prices