请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年11月15日 货币市场流动性稳中偏松，利率债收益率小幅回升 ——2021年10月利率债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 顾沈蓉 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 货币市场方面，10月份，央行公开市场操作（不包含CBS）和MLF实现净投放1600亿元。关键货币资金价格中枢保持稳定，DR007月均值与央行7天逆回购操作利率基本持平；Shibor和同业存单利率则在10月继续小幅上行；1年期LPR继续保持在3.85%。 展望未来，一段时期内货币政策大概率还是以“稳”为主，维持流动性合理充裕。短期内生产性物价通胀水平仍较高，叠加碳减排支持工具的推出，货币政策的空间可能受到制约，人民银行全面降准、降息可能性不大。 利率债一级市场方面，10月份国债和政策性银行债的合计发行量和净融资环比均下行，共实现净融资4120.50亿元。国债和政策性银行债发行利率均环比上行；10月地方债月内共发行8688.60亿元，并实现净融资6893.38亿元，与上月相比大幅增加，其中，专项债新增发行继续提速，月内共新增发行5410亿元，占10月所有新增地方债券比重高达88%。 截至10月底，今年各地已组织发行新增地方政府债券36624亿元，包括一般债券7552亿元和专项债券29072亿元。其中，一般债发行进度完成已下达限额的94.40%，专项债发行进度仅完成已下达限额的83.84%。财政部前三季度财政收支情况发布会指出，2021年新增专项债券额度尽量在11月底前发行完毕，预计11月地方债供给压力仍会维持高位。 利率债二级市场方面，10月份国债和国开债成交活跃度环比降低；国债和国开债到期收益率均回升，10年期国债收益率月内峰值曾一度突破3.0%，月末回落至2.97%；地方政府债到期收益率小幅上行；中外国债利差小幅走阔，中美利差走阔至142.32BP，境外机构投资者在10月共净增持我国债券80亿元，增持力度较上月大幅减弱。10月29日，中国国债正式纳入富时全球国债指数（WGBI），展望未来，我国债市对境外投资者仍有较强吸引力。 综合来看，10月份利率债收益率虽有所上升，但当前国内经济增长偏弱，或许尚不足以支撑其大幅上行，未来短期内利率债收益率维持震荡的可能性较大。后续可密切关注入冬后国内新冠疫情防控局势、国内经济增速、生产性物价后续走势、地产行业融资政策变化等重要变量。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年9月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 2.《2021年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 3.《2021年8月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 4.《2021年8月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 5.《2021年7月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 6.《2021年7月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 7.《2021年6月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 8.《2021年6月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets November 15th, 2021 Summary In China’s money market, the central bank's open market operations (excluding Central Bank Bills Swap or CBS) and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) achieved a net injection of 160 billion yuan in October. Key policy rates fluctuated with a stable pivot, and the monthly average of DR007 was basically the same as the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rates. The interest rates of Shibor and interbank negotiable certificates of deposit continued to rise slightly in October. 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained stable at 3.85%. In the future, the main tone of monetary policy will continue to be stable, and maintain reasonably adequate liquidity. The high inflation expectations and the release of new monetary policy tool for carbon reduction constrained the space for monetary policy. The comprehensive reduction of the deposit reserve ratio and policy rate may be unlikely in the short term. In the primary market of China's government bonds, the total issuance and net financing of central government bonds (Treasury bonds) and policy bank bonds (quasi-sovereign bonds) decreased in October and the net financing was 412.05 billion yuan. The coupon rates of newly issued central government bonds and policy bank bonds increased on a month-on-month basis. The amount of local government bond issuances was 868.86 billion yuan in October, and the net financing was 689.338 billion yuan, which increased significantly compared to last month. The pace of new Revenue Bond issuances accelerated, and the total issuance was 541 billion yuan, which accounted for 88% of all newly issued local bonds in October. As of the end of October, 3.6624 trillion yuan of local government bonds have been issued in 2021, which include 755.2 billion yuan of General Bonds and 2.9072 trillion yuan of Revenue Bonds. The progress of General Bonds issuing reached 94.40%, while the progress of Revenue Bonds issuing only reached 83.84% of the new quota. According to the Financial Revenue and Expenditure Conference held by the Department of the Treasury, the quota of newly issued Revenue Bonds will be used up at the end of November. The supply of local government bonds is expected to be high in November. In the secondary market of China's government bonds, the trading activity of central government bonds and policy bank bonds decreased in October. The yields of central government bonds and policy bank bonds rebounded. The yield of 10-years Treasury bonds once reached 3.0% in October and then fell to 2.97% at the end of the month. The yields of local government bonds went up slightly. The spreads between China’s central government bonds and foreign countries’ central government bonds widened slightly. The spread of China-U.S. central government bonds of ten years widened to 142.32BP. Foreign institutional investors increased their holdings of China’s bonds totaling 8 billion yuan in October, which was far less than Liquidity in the money market was loosened moderately, yields of government bonds rebounded slightly ——October 2021 China's government bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Gu Shenrong E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn