中国经济数据表现强劲，减少市场对复苏乏力的担忧

Economics | 15 July 2021 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 中国6 月经济数据表现强劲，零售和生产均超出预期。高科技带动了工业生产活动。房地产投资有所降温，而持续的产业升级进一步推动制造业资本支出。虽然二季度GDP同比增幅略低于市场预期，但环比增速加快，服务业增速回升预示经济进一步正常化。 下半年经济预计受到消费修复、制造业升级和全球持续复苏的支持。我们维持全年增长 8.5% 的预测。风险一是芯片供应短缺，可能制约贸易和制造业增长，二是Delta变种病毒超预期传播，带来全球经济重回风险。目前看这些风险因素范围有限。 六月数据有助减少市场对中国经济复苏乏力的担忧。就此而看，近期的降准将更可能是技术性驱动，降低银行融资成本，而非全面的货币宽松转向。未来央行流动性管理细节或会提供更加明确的政策方向。June data was strong, with retail sales and production both beating expectations. Industrial production was led by momentum in high-tech. Real estate investment has shown signs of cooling, while continued industrial upgrades are feeding into manufacturing capex. Although 2Q GDP was slightly below market consensus, it gained sequentially, and the pickup in services growth points to further normalization of the economy. We maintain our forecast for full-year growth of 8.5%, supported by consumption, manufacturing upgrades, and the continuing global recovery. One key risk is the chip supply shortage that may put constraints on the tech manufacturing sector; another is the spread of the Delta virus. Today’s data should instill greater confidence that China’s economy is on a steady recovery path and that the recent RRR cut was driven primarily by technical factors. We maintain the view that the latest RRR cut represents another step in the broader structural adjustment designed to lower bank funding costs, rather than a case of broad-based monetary easing. The future direction of central bank liquidity management should give more clarity on the policy direction. Lulu Jiang (852) 3911 8012 jianglulu@ccbintl.com Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: China economic data held up, defying the expectation of a slowdown (中国经济数据表现强劲，减少市场对复苏乏力的担忧) Economics | 16 July 2021 CCBI SECURITIES 2 China’s 2Q21 GDP rose 7.9%, slightly below market expectation According to NBS, China’s 2Q GDP grew 7.9% YoY, slightly lower than the market expectation and higher than ours (CCBI: 8.1%, cons: 8.0%). On a sequential basis, seasonally adjusted 2Q GDP rose 1.3%, up from 0.4% in 1Q. Detailed figures show that tertiary industries delivered faster growth than the headline at 8.3% YoY, while secondary and primary industries grew 7.5% YoY and 7.6% YoY, respectively, a pattern that underpinned the economic transition that was interrupted by the pandemic. One interpretation could be that the growth recovery that had once been led by strong industrial activity is now being led by the services. Among the service sectors, transportation, storage & post, and IT services increased notably in 1H, by 21% and 20.3%, respectively, compared with 11.8% growth for the overall service sector. June economic indicators suggest that growth momentum remained strong: IP, retail sales, and trade all beat market expectations, while FAI was in line with consensus Industrial production (IP) held up at a solid pace as sequential growth edged up. IP rose by 8.3% YoY in June, beating the market expectation (cons: 7.9%). On a sequential basis, IP ticked up in June from the past two months, to 0.6% MoM seasonally-adjusted, or 6.9% annualized (vs. an average of 6.5% for the past two months), similar to pre-pandemic levels of around 0.5-0.6% MoM growth. Produciton showed broad-based strength as IP growth for most sectors, including materials, equipment, and high-tech, either held up or improved, having benefiting from solid trade and domestic demand. High-tech manufacturing growth was particularly strong, rising 18% YoY in June (vs. an average of 15.1% YoY in Apr-May), suggesting continued industrial upgrades along with resilient tech exports are still driving IP growth. Auto production, by contrast, contracted from a year ago, possibly reflecting supply bottlenecks caused by the global chip shortage. Retail sales were stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 12.1% YoY in the month of June (cons: 10.8%). Catering eased from previous months as the high base effect gradually faded, though it remained the fastest growing retail category (Fig 1). Improvement in online sales was also notable, having risen 11.7% YoY compared with an average of 7.3% YoY in previous two months. Meanwhile, the consumption recovery has played a bigger part than the low base: most consumer goods categories and catering outperformed in 1H21 compared with same period in 2019, with medicine and petro the sole exceptions (Fig 2). Overall, retail data came in much better than the market has initially expected, despite the pandemic situation in Guangdong province, supporting our view that consumption will remain a driver of economic growth this year. Divergent fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth. FAI rose 12.6% YoY in 1H21, in