中国硬件科技行业：三季度新品发布利好本土品牌,“买入”TCL通讯、信利国际、舜宇光学

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 14 行业报告 中国硬件科技行业 基于苹果和三星近期的新品发布以及国内硬件/互联网生态系统的进一步改善，利于本土智能手机品牌，我们对中国智能手机品牌长期发展愈趋乐观。我们于本月初参加了高通主办的“智能手机2.0峰会”，主要收获是应用广泛的高端零部件需求强劲，显示屏、摄像头模组和内存领域的升级浪潮必将于4G时代加速。股票方面，我们推荐TCL通讯（2618 HK）、信利国际（732 HK）和舜宇光学（2382 HK）。 近期智能手机的新品发布将加速本土品牌市场份额的提升 苹果、三星以及本土手机厂家近期所发布新品的硬件创新和价格策略再次证实了我们的观点，智能手机市场的硬件差异正在缩小。尽管iPhone 5S/5C的全球首周末销售抢眼，但是我们认为对本土品牌的冲击十分有限，因为中国消费者对价格非常敏感，而且本土的品牌质量正加速提升。 中国市场的用户体验vs定价 从近期的新品发布和管理层在行业活动中的讲话可以看出，所有主要本土品牌都在将产品和营销策略的重点从过去的价格主导转向用户体验（设计、显示、本土化用户界面和内容等）主导。我们预计在接下来的4G-LTE时代，用户体验将成为产品差异化的主要领域。基于成本/规模优势、更高的产品上市效率、硬件/互联网生态系统的进步以及对本土市场更好的理解，我们认为在4G-LTE时代，本土品牌将比国际大品牌具有更强的竞争优势。 从全球到中国的升级需求保持强劲 苹果和三星近期的新品发布缓解了市场对中国中端智能手机市场竞争加剧的担忧，而iPhone 5S强劲的销售显示，全球高端手机市场的替换需求依然强烈。与此同时，我们认为中国高端手机市场需求也将保持强劲增长，由于(1) 两年前所购买的千元手机的换机需求；(2) 3G和移动互联网(如游戏和视频等)发展迅速，加速硬件升级；以及(3) 用户体验(操作系统、用户界面和应用等)渐趋重要，刺激本土高端手机需求。 股票推荐 我们重申对TCL通讯的“买入”评级，因其丰富的智能手机产品线和较强的海外中端市场布局。我们也推荐具备领先技术、拥有大量本土客户的零部件企业，如舜宇光学和信利国际，因其受益于本土手机品牌强劲的销量增长及升级周期。主要风险包括定价压力加剧、消费者需求弱于预期以及国际竞争对手抢占市场份额。 重点公司主要财务指标 公司 股票代码 股价 (港币) 目标价 (港币) 评价 上涨/下跌空间 P/E(x) P/B(x) ROE (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E 舜宇光学 2382 HK 8.13 11.0 买入 35% 12.6 9.4 2.7 2.2 21.4 23.5 信利国际 732 HK 4.62 7.15 买入 55% 8.2 6.9 2.0 1.6 24.4 23.5 瑞声科技 2018 HK 37.7 40.0 中性 6% 13.3 11.3 4.5 3.6 34.0 31.5 TCL通讯 2618 HK 5.01 5.2 买入 4% 107.1 15.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 14.3 中国无线 2369 HK 3.19 3.1 中性 -3% 16.3 13.2 2.4 2.1 15.0 16.0 资料来源：彭博、招商证券（香港） 推荐 (上次：推荐) 招商证券(香港)研究部 伍力恒 (852) 3189 6125 nglh@cmschina.com.hk 2013年9月24日 恒生指数 23179.04 H股指数 10599.15 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 10 46 50 相对表现 4 39 34 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 1. 20130813 - 中国硬件科技行业：智能终端群雄鏖战，本土品牌强势崛起 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep/12 Jan/13 May/13 Aug/13 (%) HSCIIT Index HSI Index 三季度新品发布利好本土品牌，“买入”TCL通讯、信利国际、舜宇光学 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 14 Industry Report China Hardware Technology We are increasingly more positive on Chinese smartphone brands as recent product launches from Apple/Samsung and favorable industry dynamics on local hardware/internet ecosystem should benefit domestic smartphone brands in China. We also attended Smartphone 2.0 Summit hosted by Qualcomm this month, and our takeaway is that spec upgrade on display, camera and memory is poised to accelerate in 4G era due to strong demand of advanced hardware for broader applications. Our top picks are TCL Comm (2618 HK), Truly (732 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK). Recent product launch should accelerate share gain of local brands Hardware innovation and pricing strategy of recent products from Apple/Samsung and Chinese brands reaffirmed our view of narrowing hardware differentiation in smartphone market. Despite strong launch of iPhone 5S/5C over the first weekend globally, we believe the impact on local brands is minimal in China due to high price sensitivity of Chinese consumers and accelerating improvement of local brand equity. User experience vs pricing in China market Based on recent product releases and management comments in industry events, we note that all major Chinese brands indicated that their product/marketing strategies are shifting emphasis to user experience (design, display, localised UI, content) from traditional price-driven approach, and we expect it to become the major differentiator in the upcoming 4G-LTE era. We believe local brands are well positioned to capitalize on this favorable trend over global peers, due to cost/scale advantage, fast time-to-market, improving hardware/internet ecosystem and better local market understanding. Implications We believe Apple/Samsung’s recent product launches have eased market concerns on increasing competition in the mid-end segment in China. In our view, iPhone 5S’s robust sales suggested strong replacement demand in global high-end market. Meanwhile, we expect high-end demand in China to remain strong, due to 1) upgrade demand from RMB-1000 smartphones two years ago, 2) rapid development of 3G and mobile internet (e.g. games, video) leading to strong demand for hardware upgrade, 3) increasing emphasis on user experience (OS/UI/Apps) stimulating demand for local high-end devices. Stock calls We reiterate our BUY on TCL Comm for its broadening product offerings and high exposure to mid-end overseas market. We also like component companies with technology leadership and high local OEM exposure, such as Sunny Optical and Truly, which benefit from strong volume growth and upgrade cycle of local brands. Key risks include severe pricing pressure, weaker-than-expected consumer demand and share loss to global competitors. Financials Company Ticker Rating Curr Price (HKD) Target Price (HKD) Upside/ Downside P/E(x) P/B(x) ROE (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E Sunny Optical 2382 HK Buy 8.13 11.0 35% 12.6 9.4 2.7 2.2 21.4 23.5 Truly Intl 732 HK Buy 4.62 7.15 55% 8.2 6.9 2.0 1.