Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 10 公司报告 联合能源集团 (00467.HK) 我们认为联合能源(“UEG”或集团) 并不单单是一间独立的油气生产商，更同时是一间以释放中型油资产潜在价值为目标的上市私募基金。 专注于收购资产 UEG的主要业务策略为以7.5至15亿美元的价格收购油气资产。专注于收购此价格范围内的资产让集团拥有独特的优势，使其可以在有限的竞争下买到具质素的资产。 由中国开发银行融资进行槓桿收购 UEG与中国开发银行(CDB)的香港分行签订了项目合作协议，给予UEG 50亿美元的贷款额，供其收购油气资产 收购巴基斯坦项目印证集团的执行能力 于2010年末收购BP位于巴基斯坦的油气资产项目为最能够展示UEG策略的例子。于UEG收购后，该项目产量下跌的情况得到逆转，该项目于去年录得收益增长142倍、纯利增长6.7倍、营运现金流增长35倍。 重大发现增加集团1P储量 UEG的勘探投入把集团的1P储量提升了20%，而目前勘探工作仅完成了35%。当总储量得到确认后，我们的预测生产量或有上调的空间。 估值 在调节了我们的折现现金流模型后，得出每股1.59港元的目标价。维持‘买入’评级。 盈利预测及估值 港元百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 877 3214 5117 5553 5452 同比增长(%) 3819% 267% 59% 9% -2% 净利润 515 794 1302 1197 1169 同比增长(%) 404% 54% 64% -8% -2% 每股盈利（元） 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.09 每股股息（元） 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 市盈率（X） 29.3 20.0 12.1 13.1 13.5 市净率（X） 2.8 2.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 ROE（%） -1% 9% 13% 9% 7% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 买入 (上次: 买入) 目标价：HK$ 1.59 现价：HK$1.22 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年5月21日 基础数据 恒生指数 23,493.03 H股指数 11,186.54 总股数（百万股） 13,043.05 港股股数（百万股） 13,043.05 港股市值(港元百万) 16,042.96 每股净资产（港元） $0.51 主要股东 持股(％) 张宏伟 71.05% 自由流通量 28.94% 行业 石油/天然气 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 0.8 (10.9) (16.3) 相对恒指表现 (5.4)1.3 (19.5)) (39.9) -25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13%00467.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 另类的能源公司 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 10 Company Report United Energy Group Ltd. (00467.HK) We believe that United Energy Group Ltd. (“UEG” or “Company”) is not just an independent oil and gas producer, but also a listed private equity company that aims to unlock the unrealized potential of mid-sized oil assets. Focused on asset acquisition UEG’s business strategy is centered on acquiring oil & gas acquisitions within the price range of US$0.75-1.5billion. Focusing on assets within this price spectrum gives the company a niche, whereby it can acquire high quality producing assets without excessive competition. Leverage buyout with financing from China Development Bank UEG signed a project cooperation agreement with the Hong Kong branch of the China Development Bank Corporation (CDB), which basically gives UEG a credit line of US$5bn that it can use for acquisition of oil and gas projects. Pakistan acquisition is testimony to successful execution The acquisition of BP’s oil & gas assets in Pakistan in late 2010 is the most notable example of UEG’s strategy. Production decline has been reversed with UEG capturing a 142-fold increase in revenue, 6.7-fold increase in net profit, and 35-fold increase in operating cashflow during the last financial year. Significant discoveries boosting 1P reserves UEG’s exploration efforts have led to a 20% boost in 1P reserves with only about 35% of total exploratory work being completed. This allows room for upwards adjustments to our production profile when total new reserves are confirmed. Valuation We adjust our DCF-based fair value to HK$1.59/share. Maintain “Buy”. Financials HK$m 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 877 3214 5117 5553 5452 Growth(%) 3819% 267% 59% 9% -2% Net profit 515 794 1302 1197 1169 Growth(%) 404% 54% 64% -8% -2% EPS(HK$) 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.09 DPS(HK$) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P/E(X) 29.3 20.0 12.1 13.1 13.5 P/B(X) 2.8 2.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 ROE(%) -1% 9% 13% 9% 7% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates Buy (Prior: Buy) TP：HK$ 1.59 Current Price HK$1.22 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 21 May 2013 Key data HSI Index 23,493.03 HSCEI Index 11,186.54 S/O (mn) 13,043.05 Mkt cap (HK$) (mn) 16,042.96 BVPS (HK$) $0.51 Major share holder Holding (％) ZHANG Hongwei 71.05% Free float 28.94% Industry Oil & Gas Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return 0.8 (10.9) (16.3) Relative return (5.4)1.3 (19.5)) (39.9) -25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13%00467.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research An atypical energy company 3 of 10 Please see important notice on the last page. Company Report Focused on asset acquisition We believe that the main difference between UEG and most oil & gas companies is its business strategy, which is centered on acquiring oil & gas acquisitions within the price range of US$0.75-1.5billion. Assets within this price spectrum are either too large for smaller E&P players to acquire while too insignificant for large oil majors. Hence, the company is in a niche market, whereby it can acquire high quality producing assets without excessive competition. Key acquisition criteria that UEG uses to screen for potential targets include: • Significant current operating and free cash flow • Appraised reserves • Near term development and contingent resource upside • Opportunities for synergies with existing assets/technologi