美联储议息会议快评：美联储会议和伯南克讲话削弱市场放缓QE预期
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net 中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商www.jztzw.net 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 全球视野 本土智慧 经济研究 Page 1 证券研究报告—动态报告/经济快评 宏观经济 美联储议息会议快评 2013年03月21日 [Table_Title] 美联储会议和伯南克讲话削弱市场放缓QE预期 证券分析师： 崔嵘 021-60933159 cuirong@guosen.com.cn 证券投资咨询执业资格证书编码：S0980510120057 证券分析师： 周炳林 0755-82130638 zhoublin@guosen.com.cn 证券投资咨询执业资格证书编码：S0980510120066 事项： [Table_Summary] 3月19-20日美联储召开为期两天的货币政策会议，并公布经济增长和利率预测。 评论： 3月19日-20日美联储召开为期两天的货币政策会议，以9：1票通过维持现有QE政策不变。 1. 本次会议声明及伯南克讲话符合我们预期，即：美联储不会过早停止QE，至少会延续至下半年后期；伯讲话的内容更可能的是淡化资产泡沫忧虑，提高通胀容忍度，削弱市场放缓QE的预期。我们认为，美联储停止QE的时间点在2014年上半年可能性更高。 2. 会议内容： 维持低利率和当前QE政策不变（即每月850亿美元资产购买规模） 会议声明与前月基本一致：经济从2012Q4的停滞重回温和增长；并提及财政政策受限。 下调2013年经济增长预期（由2.3%-3%下调至2.3%-2.8%） 伯南克讲话：对美联储的资产购买计划持开放态度（及QE规模可增可减），要是经济的改善而定；QE停止与加息之间有一定时间间隔。 3. 我们维持观点，美联储未来可能提及的应该是对经济和市场冲击最小的一种货币政策沟通方式，如失业率下降0.1%，则QE购买资产的规模减少100-150亿美元。贸然放慢或停止QE并不符合美联储呵护市场和经济的初衷。 4. 即使美联储在2013年某个时点放慢或停止资产购买计划，但极度宽松和低利率的货币政策也不会立即终止，至少在2013年还会维持。 表1：美联储2013年货币政策会议日程 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1月29－30日 4月30－5月1日 7月30－31日 10月29－30日 3月19－20日 6月18－19日 9月17日－18日 12月17－18日 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所 wwwww1 www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net 中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商www.jztzw.net 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 全球视野 本土智慧 Page 2 表2：美联储议息会后声明对比 1月29日-30日会议声明 3月19-20日会议声明 表述变化 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. T he Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term T reasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing T reasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purcha
