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Buy high-end China retailers

2010-08-25Selina Sia未来资产证券从***
Buy high-end China retailers

Consumer Intelligencer 1See the last page of this report for important disclosures Supermarket same-store-sales growth (YoY) CompanyFY081H09FY091Q101H10FY10 TargetCR Supermarkets 11.2% -1.9% 0.8%8.1%NAMSDLianhua8.3% -1.7% -0.2%3.0%NA5.0%9% 10.6% 8.5%>H D6.2% 5.7%NAWumart8.1% 3.5% 6.SJingkelong6.0% -3.3% -1.1% Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Research Department stores’ same-store-sales growth (YoY)CompanyMSD = mid single digit; HSD = high single digit 1H09FY091Q10FY10TargetGolden Eagle14.9% 17.5% >20.0%20.0%Intime13.0% 16.7%18.4% >15.0%Maoye0.6%6.8% 26.0%^NANW Dept Store5.0%2.7%MSD*MSD*%10.8%10.0NA~10%16.5%NAParkson6.9%7.5%PCD stores Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Research MSD = mid single digit t t ein to area include Hengdeli (3389 HK) and Ports (589 HK, Buy, TP HK$24.0). omberg’s consensus full-year FY10 forecasrease to Rmb306m, 8x 1m in o Rmb280.4m in to 285.8m. e with Bloomberg estimate for FY10. Not Rated. r , TP P HK$17.0. There . We profit, i.e. 11.1% YoY net profit n Eagle (3308 HK), Ajisen (538 HK), Stella (1836 HK) are all due to report interim results for six months ended 30 June 2010, in the week ahead. 0 k hk16 August 201Selina Sia, Head of Consumer Research, 852 3653 8640 selina.sia@miraeasset.hJessica Hong, HK/China Consumer Analyst, 852 3653 8639 jessica.hong@miraeasset.Buy high-end China retailersThe up-and-coming China retail plays like Hengdeli (3389 HK, Buy, TP HK$4.2) and Lifestyle (1212 HK, Not Rated) delivered promising businessoutlooks for their operations in the mainland, while Li & Fung (494 HK, NoRated) is also privatizing its Chinese logistics arm, IDS (2387 HK, NoRated), with a view to improve its mainland business growth. As the valuations of the typical China consumer plays stay demanding, we believthat the market will likely continue to look for alternatives in order to gaexposure to the China consumption story. In view of the encouraging data points delivered last week by high-end retailers like Hengdeli (3389 HK) and Lifestyle (1212 HK), we continueadvise investors to Buy high-end retailers in China. Our top picks in this» Highlights of the past week Tsingtao (151 HK) announced 29.7% YoY earnings increase to Rmb830min 1H10 in line with our and Blo t. We reiterate Buy, TP HK$45.8. Hengdeli (3389 HK) reported 44.4% YoY net profit incin line with our forecast. We reiterate Buy, TP HK$4.2. Li & Fung (494 HK) announced the privatization of IDS (2387 HK) at 22009 P/E; it also reported 55.5% YoY earnings growth to HK$2,171H10, i.e. 12.7% above Bloomberg consensus forecast. Not Rated. Wumart (8277 HK) reported 20.2% YoY net profit growth t 1H10, in line with Bloomberg estimate for FY10. Not Rated. Jingkelong (814 HK) announced 20.1% YoY net profit increaseRmb84.4m, in line with Bloomberg forecast for FY10. Not Rated. Maoye (848 HK) reported 17.3% YoY earnings increase to RmbConcessionaire SSS growth in 1H10 was 23.4% YoY. Not Rated. Lifestyle (1212 HK) reported 9.1% YoY headline net profit growth to HK$653.7m in 1H10, in lin» The week ahead Tingyi (322 HK) will report 1H10 results on 16 August. We are looking foUS$429.3m net profit or 12.1% YoY earnings growth in FY10. Reduce HK$14.8. There will be an analyst meeting on 16 August in Hong Kong. ANTA (2020 HK) will report 1H10 results on 16 August. We are looking forRmb0.271 EPS or 11.1% YoY growth in 1H10. Buy, Twill be an analyst meeting on 16 August in Hong Kong. Parkson (3368 HK) is due to announce 1H10 results on 20 Augustare looking for about Rmb1,012m net growth in FY10. Reduce, TP HK$10.0. There will be a management conference call on 20 August. Xiwang Sugar (2088 HK), Golde Price Price change er ) CompanyTick(HK$1 mth 3 mthsAnta Sports 2020 HK 14.90 2.2% 4.9% Belle 1880 HK %% 12.96 13.1 29.6China YurunK 26.90 %% 1068 H7.6 17.5CRE 291 HK 30.20 %% 3.8 15.7Dongxiang K 4.45 %% 3818 H-10.6 -9.9Hengan K 70.40 %% 1044 H6.4 24.5Hengdeli 3389 3.72 %% HK 7.8 10.4Li Ning K %% 2331 H25.35 -5.2 -7.1Lianhua K % % 980 H30.80 -0.612.8Mengniu K 0%% 2319 H23.1 -10.1 1.1Parkson 3368 HK %% 13.02 -2.4 11.9Peak Sport K 5% % 1968 H5.5 12.3-8.3Ports DesignK %% 589 H20.85 0.2 9.7SinoPharm K 29.25 % % 1099 H2.5-12.9Tingyi 322 HK 18.96 %% -4.1 5.6Tsingtao 168 HK 38.70 % % 4.9-0.6Want Want 151 HK 6.25 -4.6% 2.5% Note: Prices as of 6 August, 2010 n’ share princeChi a consumer stocksce performa Selina Sia, Head of Consumer Research, 852 3653 8640 selina.sia@miraeasset.hk Consumer Intelligencer 16 August 2010 Jessica Hong, HK/China Consumer Analyst, 852 3653 8639 jessica.hong@miraeasset.hk [Weekly] 2 Figure 1. China consumer sector universeJewelersElect rical appliance ret a