宏观经济2010年中期投资策略：在刀锋上跳舞

Please read the important notice on the last page. 1 of 43 Dancing on the Blade Macro Report Macroeconomic Investment Strategyfor 2H2010 ¾ A wide range of European and American economies' financial restructuring will definitely slow down the global economic recovery. U.S. economy continues recovery. Due to the rise in household income and the improved wealth situation, the consumption will contribute more to U.S. economy in 2H2010. Annual U.S. economic growth is expected to be about 3.5%. Debt crisis in Europe is far from bottoming out. Spain's debt refinancing, which may peak in July, will once again test the market's confidence in government bonds in Europe and the EU response to the crisis. With the increased pressure on fiscal spending, economic growth momentum in Europe weakened. Expected annual GDP growth over the previous year will not exceed 0.5%, following a decending curve. Dr. David XIE （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn Dr. Cliff ZHAO （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Research Department CMS (HK) 21 June 2010 ¾ The negative impact of the debt crisis on Chinese exports starts to appear. Continued spread of the debt crisis in Europe has increased the uncertainty of global economic recovery, the debt crisis of the European’s impact on China’s exports to the EU will begin to appear. At the same time, the domestic macro-control will gradually suppress imports in 2H2010. We maintain our view that foreign trade will have restorative growth this year, but the trade surplus will be significantly narrowed. Taking into account the whole year's trade surplus will be narrowed significantly compared to last year, we revise the net exports contribution to GDP growth of 0.2 percentage points down to -0.2 percentage points. ¾ Macro-control policies on real estates will depress the investment growth. Affected by the significant impact of macro-control on real estates, the contribution of real estates to economic growth declines. Considering the important influence of real estate industry itself and related industries on investment, although credit delivery may speed up the pace in the second half of the year according to the balanced credit management and the progress of construction for the affordable housing will accelerate, we believe that macro-control policies on real estates will have a significant impact. We reduce the annual investment growth rate to 22.8% and reduce its contribution to GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 5.9 percentage points. ¾ Inflation is still manageable, which should be “disinflation”, not “deflation”. We believe that the decline in the velocity of money can Please read the important notice on the last page. 2 of 43absorb excess money supply, rising labor costs is a slow and gradual process, the probability of out-of-control inflation is not high. Annual CPI movements follows a bell-shaped curve, which may peak in the third quarter, CPI may be about 3.5% over the whole year. ¾ Short-term consumption is lack of surprise. Consumption will maintain stable growth in 2H2010. The increasing income level, the expansion of the scope of fiscal stimulus and the strengthening of the rise and consumer confidence are the major factors contributing to the stable growth of consumption in 2H2010. We expect that the nominal growth rate of consumption of this year is 18.6%, driving GDP growth of 4.1 percentage points. ¾ Policy adjustment facing a dilemma: “the withdrawal of ultra-loose monetary policy" is the keynote of monetary policy in 2H2010. But its time may be postponed and the intensity may mitigate: limiting the scale of credit to 7.5 trillion yuan, raising the reserve ratio from 50 to 100 basis points, raising benchmark interest rate once and changing the RMB exchange rate regime back to pegging to a basket of currencies. ¾ 2010 GDP growth estimates further revised down: GDP growth forecast for the year down to 9.8%. Please read the important notice on the last page. 3 of 43 宏观经济2010年中期投资策略 招商证券（香港）研究部 ¾ 欧美经济体广泛的财政重整，势必影响全球经济复苏的步伐。美国经济持续复苏。由于家庭收入的上升和财富状况的改善，消费对下半年美国经济的贡献将上升。预计全年美国经济增长3.5%左右。欧洲债务危机远未见底。7月份西班牙债务再融资高峰将再次考验市场对欧洲国债的信心和欧盟应对危机的能力。随着财政开支增长受压，欧洲经济增长动能减弱。预计全年GDP同比增速将不超过0.5%，前高后低。 谢亚轩 博士 （86-755）83295524 ¾ 债务危机对中国出口的负面影响将开始显现。持续蔓延的欧洲债务危机加大了全球经济复苏的不确定性，欧洲债务危机对中国向欧盟出口的影响将开始显现。与此同时，国内宏观调控对进口的压制作用也将在下半年逐步显现。我们维持2010年对外贸易将出现恢复性增长的判断，但贸易顺差将显著收窄。考虑到全年贸易顺差将会较去年显著收窄，我们将净出口对于GDP增长的贡献由此前的+0.2个百分点，下调至-0.2个百分点。 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 赵文利 博士 （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn 2010年6月21日 宏观报告 在刀锋上跳舞 ¾ 国内房地产调控将压低投资增长。受到房地产调控的显著影响，房地产投资对经济增长贡献下降。考虑到