拨备计提力度小于预期,手续费收入增长不理想

Please see important notice on the last page. Company BriefingCHINA MERCH BK-H(03968.HK) CMB reported 2009 results: total assets and total liabilities reached RMB 2.07 trillion and RMB 1.98 trillion, an increase of 25.7% and 32.4%, respectively as compared with that of the beginning of the year. Net customer loans increased by 36.2 % y/y to RMB 1.16trillion and customer deposits increased by 29.6% y/y to RMB 1.62 trillion. 2009 attributable profit came at RMB 18.2bn, a decrease of 13.5% y/y, EPS came to RMB 0.95 yuan. Annualized ROAE was 21.2%. CMB 2009 results came better than our expectations, 4% higher than our previous forecast. An annual results analyst briefing will be hold on April 14, and we will update more information soon. 2009 results reads: NIM recovered 13 bp in 4Q and asset quality further improved 20094Q NIM further improved 13 bps to 2.43%, in line with our expiations. NPL ratio came to 0.82% and SML ratio came to 1.19%, asset quality further improved. Lower than expected provision charge lifted net profit The main reason that 2009 results came better than our expectation is due to lower than expected provision charge in 20094Q. 2009 provision charge decreased by 43.6% y/y and PPOP down 20.7% y/y. Net fee and commission growth came lower than our expectations 2009 Net fee and commission only recorded 3.2% y/y growth. Bank card fees, trust services fee and other income recorded -2.85% y/y,-18.7% y/y and -25.5% y/y growth. respectively. 2010 Q1 results came in line with our expectations CMB also announced 2010 Q1 net profit of RMB 5.9bn yesterday, up 40.21% y/y, 25% of our whole year estimates. By the end of 2010 Q1, CMB CAR came to 11.40% and NPL ratio down to 0.74%. Valuation and rating our earnings forecast and target price is under revaluation, current maiatain Neutral rating. Neutral (prior：Neutral) TP：HK$ 22 Current price：HK$21.20 China Merchants Securities (HK) Susanna Sun 0755-82943165 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 13 Apr 2010 Key data HSI Index 22138.17HSCEI Index 12953.45S/O（mn） 20327S/O (HK)（mn） 3910Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 82902BVPS（HKD） 4.14Major share holder Holding (％)Free float 19.24Industry Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return 9 2537Relative return 4 21-3 -2 00204060Apr-09Aug-09Nov-09Mar-10(%)03968 .HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Related research Provision charges lower than expectation, fee income growth undesirable 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司简报招商银行(03968.HK) 招商银行公布2009全年业绩:总资产较年初增长25.7%至2.07万亿元（人民币，下同），其中客户贷款净额增长36.2%至1.16万亿元；总负债较年初增长32.4%至1.98万亿元,其中客户存款总额较年初增长29.6%至1.62万亿元，全年实现可分配利润182亿元，同比下降13.5%；每股收益0.95元。招行2009年业绩优于预期，较我们之前预测高4%。2009年化平均股东权益报酬率21.2%，平均总资产回报率1.0%。招行将于2010年4月14日上午召开分析师会议，我们届时会向投资者更新所获最新信息。 2009 业绩解读 净息差4季度回升幅度较为理想，资产质量进一步改善 2009年4季度招行净息差较3季度回升13个基点至2.43%, 符合我们的预期。 不良资产率下降至0.82%，关注类贷款占比下降至1.19%，资产质量进一步改善。 拨备计提力度小小于预期提升净利润 2009年业绩高于预期的主要原因是4季度拨备计提力度小于预期。2009年拨备前利润同比下降20.7%，拨备费用同比下降43.6%，4季度拨备计提力度较小对年末盈利有较大提升。 手续费及佣金收入增长不理想 2009年净手续费及佣金收入仅同比增长3.2%，其中银行卡手续费收入、托管及其他受托业务佣金及其他收入录得-2.8%、-18.7%及-25.5%的增长。 2010年一季度业绩符合预期 招行昨日同时公布2010年1季度快报，当季实现净利润59亿元，同比增长40.21%，达我们全年预测的25%，1季度业绩基本符合预期。截止2010年一季度，招行不良率下降至0.74%，资本充足率上升至11.40%。 估值与评级 我们的盈利预测和目标价在重新评估中，暂维持中性评级。 中性 (上次：中性) 目标价：HK$ 22 现价：HK$21.20 招商证券(香港)研究部 孙娜 0755-82943165 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 2010年4月13日 基础数据 恒生指数 22138.17H股指数 12953.45总股数（万股） 20327港股股数（万股） 3910港股市值(港元百万) 82902每股净资产（港元） 4.14主要股东 持股(％)自由流通量 19.24行业股价表现 %1m 6m12m绝对表现 9 2537相对恒指表现 4 21-3 -2 00204060Apr-09Aug-09Nov-09Mar-10(%)03968.HKHSI Index 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 拨备计提力度小于预期，手续费收入增长不理想 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司简报招行财务数据简表 资料来源：公司资料，招商证券（香港） 人民币 百万元 2008 2009 y/y 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 QoQ YoY 净利息收入 46,885 40,364 -13.9%9,481 9,142 10,384 11,357 9% 0% 非利息收入 8,759 11,484 31.1%2,501 3,697 2,775 2,511 -10% 31.7% 总营收 55,644 51,848 -6.8%11,982 12,839 13,159 13,868 5% 3% 营运费用 -23,636 -26,207 10.9%-5,767 -6,273 -6,748 -7,419 10% -11% 拨备前营业利润 31,902 25,286 -20.7%6,215 6,566 6,411 6,094 -5% 28% 拨备费用 -5,143 -2,902 -43.6%-790 -1,813 -132 -167 27% -45% 税前利润 26,759 22,384 -16.3%5,425 4,753 6,279 5,927 -6% 132% 税费 -5,813 -4,149 -28.6%-1,217 -699 -1,463 -770 -47% 734% 可分配利润 21,077 18,235 -13.5%4,208 4,054 4,816 5,157 7% 93% 贷款总额 852,754 1,161,817 36.2%995,940 1 ,152,1671,169,765 1,105,816 -5% 33% 总资产 1,571,797 1,975,917 25.7%1,800,8391,972,7682,016,901 1,975,917 -2% 28% 存款总额 1,250,648 1,620,632 29.6%1,446,6831,540,6821,583,494 1,620,632 2% 29% 股东权益 79,515 100,408 26.3%82,171 84,185 87,505 100,408 15% 41% 风险加权资产 817,642 1,039,489 27.1%na 1 ,100,838 n.a 1,039,489 n.a. 21% 成本收入比 42.5% 44.5%