UOBKayHian Regional Morning Notes Friday, January 22, 2010 Please see important notice on last page Page 1 of 22 CHINA Economies GDP Page 2 GDP growth accelerates in 4Q09. More tightening measures are expected in the short term given higher inflation expectation and soaring property prices. CPI Page 4 Mild inflation in 1H10 despite risk on the upside. Monetary tightening focuses more on soaring property prices and higher inflation expectation. Sector Banking Page 6 Transparent earnings growth masked by policy overhangs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Intime (BUY/HK$7.64/Target: HK$9.10) Page 8 Favourable deal will benefit Intime in the long term; 2009 results can also beat market expectation. HONG KONG Sector Property Page 10 Our regression exercise offers an objective look at what property market outlook stock prices are discounting at present. INDONESIA Update United Tractors (BUY/Rp17,700/Target: Rp21,600) Page 12 Benefitting from commodity plays. Raise target price to Rp21,600 on higher coal production and expanded valuation. MALAYSIA Sector Rubber Gloves Page 14 The sector offers little near-term upside after a strong ytd share price run-up. Expect profit-taking on surging costs and intense capacity expansion. SINGAPORE Update People’s Food (HOLD/S$0.72/Fair: S$0.76) Page 16 With stable hog and pork prices, earnings should rebound from the trough in 2009 and investor confidence should return. Upgrade to HOLD. Keppel Corp (SELL/S$8.35/Fair: S$8.20) Page 18 Raising earnings forecasts and fair price on higher contract win forecasts. Maintain SELL, despite laggard performance. THAILAND Results Bank of Ayudhya (BUY/Bt20.00/Target: Bt24.00) Page 20 2009: Net profit surges 55%, boosted by strong revenue growth from inorganic growth strategy. KEY STORY China Banking Page 6 Transparent earnings growth masked by policy overhangs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Hong Kong Property Page 11 Our regression exercise offers an objective look at what property market outlook stock prices are discounting at present. Prev Close 1D % 1W % 1M % YTD % Key Indices DJIA 10389.9 (2.0) (2.7) (0.2) (0.4) S&P 500 1116.5 (1.9) (2.5) 0.2 0.1 FTSE 100 5335.1 (1.6) (3.0) 0.8 (1.4) AS30 4895.1 (0.9) (1.6) 2.7 (0.7) CSI 300 3408.6 0.4 (1.7) 3.1 (4.7) FSSTI 2851.0 (1.5) (2.0) 1.0 (1.6) HSI 20862.7 (2.0) (3.9) (1.1) (4.6) JCI 2638.4 (1.1) (0.3) 6.9 4.1 KLCI 1308.4 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.8 KOSPI 1714.4 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.3 Nikkei 225 10737.5 1.2 (0.4) 4.7 3.1 SET 719.0 (1.8) (4.1) (0.7) (2.1) TWSE 8127.9 (1.1) (2.0) 3.5 (0.7) BDI 3170 0.4 (2.0) 0.5 5.5 CPO (RM/mt) 2437 (1.2) (1.8) (3.2) (5.9) Nymex Crude (US$/bbl) 76 (2.3) (4.6)