港口业：出口5月或将见底回升,维持“跑赢大市”

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Port Sector 港口业 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 33 Sector Report Sector Report: Port Sector Jason Song 宋 然 行业报告：港口业 +852 2509 7768 jason.song@gtjas.com.hk 29 April 2014 Exports May Bottom Out in May, Maintain ‘Outperform’ 出口5月或将见底回升，维持“跑赢大市”  Mutual stock market access boosted share price surge. Benefiting from the pilot investment program of mutual stock market access, Dalian Port (02880 HK) and Xiamen Int’l Port (03378 HK)’s share prices surged during the last a few weeks as their H-share prices presented large discounts to their corresponding A-share prices.  China exports decreased by 6.6% yoy in March. Export growth missed consensus. Imports in March declined by 11.3% yoy, and also trailed consensus. Looking ahead, we expect to see a rebound in China’s foreign trade in the second quarter of the year.  Revise up FY14-FY15 earnings estimates of major listed port operators. We slightly revise up FY14-FY15 earnings of certain port operators under our coverage. Also, we introduce FY16 earnings estimates for the operators under our coverage. The weighted average earnings growth in FY16 is approximately 11.5%.  Maintain sector rating of ‘Outperform’, maintain CMHI (00144 HK) as sector top pick. We believe China’s exports may bottom out in May 2014, which may have positive impact on the share price of the port operators. Maintain sector rating of ‘Outperform’. Our sector top pick is CMHI (00144 HK), with investment rating of ‘Buy’ and TP of HK$38.00. Also, we maintain ‘Accumulate’ for CP (01199 HK) and Dalian Port (02880 HK)’s as the current valuation is low and attractive.  沪港股市互联互通刺激股价上升。受惠于沪港股市互联互通试行政策的消息，大连港股份(02880 HK)及厦门国际港务(03378 HK)的股价由于H股相对A股存在较大折让，在前几周出现较大幅度的上涨。  中国3月份出口同比下降6.6%。出口增速低于市场预期。三月份的进口同比下跌11.3%，也低于市场预期。展望未来，我们预计中国外贸在第二季度反弹。  调整主要上市港口运营商的盈利预测。我们轻微调整了覆盖的部分上市港口运营商2014-2015年的盈利预测。同时，我们给出了所覆盖公司2016年的盈利预测。2016年盈利预测增幅加权平均值约为11.5%。  维持行业评级“跑赢大市”，维持招商局国际 (00144 HK) 为行业首选。由于预计2014年5月出口将见底回升，可能会对相关港口运营商股价产生正面影响，维持行业评级“跑赢大市”。我们行业首选为招商局国际 (00144 HK)，评级“买入”，目标价38.00港元。我们维持中远太平洋 (01199 HK) 和大连港 (02880 HK) 的“收集”评级，主要因为公司目前的估值较低，相对吸引。 Rating: Outperform Maintained 评级： 跑赢大市 (维持) Stock performance 股价表现 Source: Bloomberg. Exports and imports growth (S.A.) 进出口增速（季调） Source: Bloomberg. Company Name Code Price Rating FY14 PER FY15 PER FY16 PER FY14 P/B FY14 ROE FY14 Yield 公司名称 编号 股价 投资评级 市盈率 市盈率 市盈率 市净率 净资产收益率 股息率 (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) CMHI 00144 HK 24.600 Buy 14.0 12.7 11.2 1.2 9.3 3.1 COSCO Pacific 01199 HK 10.260 Accumulate 11.3 10.1 9.3 0.8 7.1 3.3 Dalian Port 02880 HK 1.870 Accumulate 8.6 7.9 8.1 0.5 5.9 4.9 Xiamen Int'l Port 03378 HK 1.150 Neutral 8.5 8.1 7.1 0.5 5.7 6.3 Tianjin Port 03382 HK 1.240 Neutral 9.1 8.9 8.9 0.9 8.4 4.6 Simple Average 10.3 9.5 8.9 0.7 7.3 4.4 简单平均 Weighted Average Outperform 12.5 11.3 10.2 0.9 8.3 3.5 市值加权平均 Source: the Companies, Guotai Junan International. (20.0)(10.0)0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Apr/13Jul/13Oct/13Jan/14Apr/14% of returnXiamen PortTianjin PortDalian PortCPHSICMHI-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14(%)% Export YoY% Import YoY 29 April 2014 Port Sector 港口业 Sector Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 33 TABLE OF CONTENTS Sector Review .............................................................................................................................................. 3 Company Report: CMHI (00144 HK) .......................................................................................................... 8 Company Report: COSCO Pacific (01199 HK) ........................................................................................ 12 Company Report: Dalian Port (02880 HK)............................................................................................... 18 Company Report: Xiamen Int’l Port (03378 HK) ..................................................................................... 23 Company Report: Tianjin Port Dev. (03382 HK) ..................................................................................... 28 29 April 2014 Port Sector 港口业 Sector Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 33 Sector Review We revise our FY14-FY15 earnings estimates for the port