The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein.MONTHLY SET STRATEGY: Thai Stock Market Outlook & Stock Picks for Apr 2014Research TeamApr 1, 2014Rising political heat to keep Thai stocks in check in the month of Songkran MCI(P) 046/11/2013Ref. No.: TH2014_0127 The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein.2Thai stock market outlook for 2Q14 & Apr 2014SummaryThai economic and political outlook for 2Q14(1) Domestic political uncertainty with no signs of light at the end of the political tunnel has still put the Thai economy at risk of a slowdown. The prospect of slowing consumption and investment also keep growth hope largely pinned on exports. Even though the lifting of the emergency law has taken some of the pressure off the tourism industry, fears of renewed political chaos as a consequence of political protests by both government supporters and opponents may however spoil high tourism season during the annual water splashing Songkran Festival in early 2Q14.(2) Thailand may face more political risks from a possible confrontation between government supporters and opponents in the aftermath of court rulings on political cases relating to the caretaker PM and the survival of the caretaker government especially in the scorching month of Apr when (i) the pro-government, red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) plans a mass rally on Apr 5 and (ii) the Constitutional Court will meet on Apr 2 to decide whether to accept a petition by a group of senators asking it to rule if Yingluck Shinawatra's position as caretaker PM is still valid under Section 182 (7) of the constitution after the Supreme Administrative Court ordered the reinstatement of Thawil Pliensri as secretary-general of the National Security Council within 45 days.Thai stock market outlook for 2Q14The reactions of several political groups in the wake of court rulings on cases relating to the caretaker government could raise the odds of rising political heat in the torrid month of Apr. Dividend season also normally reaches its peak for the year in Apr. As things stand, the choppy sideways action is likely to continue in the Thai stock market as political and economic risks may put a cap on the upside potential while the downside could be tempered by a return of foreign fund inflows into Asia. The pace of foreign selling in Thai stocks shows signs of abating after heavy sell-offs last year and well into the first quarter of this year. We expect a trading range of 1320, 1340-1460, 1480 points for the SET index in 2Q14. On a monthly basis, the SET index is expected to trade in a range of 1340-1420 points in the month of Apr.Our top three picks for 2Q14 are CPF, PTTGC and RS while our recommended picks for the month of Apr include BWG, CHG and MINT. The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities (Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned in the securities mentioned herein.3Private consumption in slow growth modeThe end of economic stimulus may hold back private consumption while consumers are now far more cautious in spending amid prolonged political crisis.4045505560657075808590