AI价值链：Vera Rubin数据中心每GW容量的实际成本是多少？

AI Value Chain: How much does a GW of Vera Rubin data centercapacity actually cost? Based on a series of conversations with industry experts as well as third-party data onphysical infrastructure, we update our estimates of rack-level AI data center economics forthe Vera Rubin NVL 72 architecture.This note includes our analysis and key takeaways. Excelbackup is available on request. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu+1 917 344 8309daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com We estimate that a typical VR / NVL72 rack costs ~$9.1M per rack. This estimateis notably higher than the ~$8M figure reported in the media, which appears to bebased on stale memory prices.We believe the disconnect is largely coming from HBM -we land at a similar figure if we use HBM 4 price of ~$16.6 / GB, but we expect the price toincrease to $53 / GB in 2027, when Vera Rubin will be shipping in volume, and we furtherbelieve Nvidia will pass these costs on to end customers. Overall, we believe memory /storage costs will be close to ~$3.2M, higher than the $2M implied by historical prices.Investors should also modify estimates as memory prices change. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Even with increased memory costs, the GPU remains the largest contributor to cost.We believe ~$4M in cost is coming from the GPU (ex. HBM). Costs are less transparentoutside of compute and memory / storage, but we believe that networking comprises$1.2M of the remaining ~$2M, led by NVLink and SpectrumX switches. Cooling and powerdelivery costs were also significant at ~$150k each. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com We estimate all-in AI data center capex of ~$47B per GW.Given that the Vera RubinNVL 72 rack is rated for 220 kW, our estimate that the rack consumes ~80% of data centerpower, and coupled with $15B in physical infrastructure costs per GW, this points to all-inAI data center capex of ~$47B per GW. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Notably, this appears to represent a continued acceleration in FP8 performance perdollar.The Vera Rubin NVL72 rack performs at 2,520 PLOPS, up from 720 for Blackwell,implying meaningful acceleration in compute capacity, both on a per GW and a per $ basis Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Given the shorter depreciation lifespan of IT Hardware such as servers andnetworking compared to mechanical & electrical equipment or land & buildings, andgiven that operating costs are relatively low, the true economic costs are likely evenmore heavily weighted towards servers and networking compared to what cashcapex would imply.Even at an elevated cost of $0.15/kWH, it costs ~$1.3B in electricityto run a GW of data center capacity for a year. Personnel costs are also negligible, leaving ~$7.2B in annual depreciation as the dominant operating cost. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Looking forward, we expect cost per GW to continue to increase, pointing toincreases in power demand that lag the growth in hyperscalar capex.We also seemajor increases in DRAM and power content and believe substrate content is alsoincreasing. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Available compute continues to accelerate, which could help to unlock further AIadoption. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NVDA (OP, US$315.00):We rate Nvidia Outperform, PT=US$315.00.Unimicron (OP, NT$990.00):We rate Unimicron Outperform, PT=NT$990.00.Delta (OP, NT$2,620.00):We rate Delta Outperform, PT=NT$2,620.00.Quanta (UP, NT$250.00):We rate Quanta Underperform, PT=NT$250.00.Chroma (OP, NT$1,660.00):We rate Chroma Outperform, PT=NT$1,660.00.Digital Realty (OP, $232):We rate DLR Outperform, PT=$232.Equinix (OP, $1,222):We rate Equinix Outperform, PT=$1,222.Coreweave (UP, $67):We rate Coreweave Underperform, PT=$67. DETAILS Based on a series of conversations with industry experts, supply chain checks, and third party data on out-of-rack costs of landand physical infrastructure, we update our estimates of GB200/NVL72 AI data center rack-level economics for the Vera RubinNVL72 architecture. This note includes our analysis and key takeaways. SeeAI Value Chain: How much does a GW of data centercapacity actually cost, and what goes into it? for our original view on the Blackwell cycle, and our Black Book for our updatedperspective:Artificial Intelligence: The AI Infrastructure Value Chain We believe the Vera Rubin NVL 72 to be an ~$9.1M rack. This estimate is notably higher than the ~$8M figurereported in the media, which we believe to be based on stale memory prices. For our breakdown of rack costs, see:Exhibit 1.We construct a bott