Equity –Asia Research本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtranslationofthedisclaimer)杨斌, bin.yang@htisec.com2023年3月13日本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtranslationofthedisclaimer)海通国际电新&火电2023年近况梳理新起点，新征程，新能源产业链大有可为2023 Viewpoint Update of Power Equipment,New Energy & Thermal Power Industry :New Start & New Journey, Great Potential for Renewable Energy Industry Chain For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com2For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com风光运营：产业链降本趋势未变，风光运营商IRR普遍超过8%储能：强制配储是基本盘，储能盈利模式不断优化，大储装机高增确定性强抽水蓄能：抽水蓄能建设迎来高峰，景气度将维持到“十五五”观点总结 iWaUsUMBnZiZ8Z7N9RaQnPoOmOtQfQpPpMlOmNoN9PoPtRxNoOuNwMmMnOFor full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com3电力风电光伏锂电&储能氢能风电、光伏、抽蓄、火电新增装机同比高增，特高压建设加速装机集中释放，风机大型化加速产业链短期承压，关注N型新技术大储维持高景气度电解水制氢前景广阔目录12345 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com4For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com电力版块：风、光、火、抽蓄装机同比高增，特高压建设加速风光运营：产业链降本趋势未变，风光运营商IRR普遍超过8%火电及抽水蓄能：火电及抽水蓄能建设迎来高峰，景气度将维持到“十五五”特高压：23年有望开工“6直2交”，特高压核心设备迎来采购大年 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com5资料来源：锐轩咨询, HTI图：2022年主要省市招标量和中标量图：2022年主要业主招标量和中标量根据不完全统计，2022年，全国公开发布的风机设备招标项目共计478个，总容量达9245.2万千瓦，中标量为8624.3万千瓦。内蒙古自治区累计招标容量领先，达1432.1万千瓦，其累计中标容量同样领跑，达1396.6万千瓦。五大及主要央企发电集团的累计招、中标容量均占据较大优势，分别共获得76.3%、73.7%的市场份额，其中，陆上招标方面，中国华能以708.2万千瓦领跑市场，海上风电招标规模含框架为2123万千瓦，中标2322.5万千瓦。风电：22年招投标规模创历史性新高，与并网规模剪刀差较大总招标量：92,452.15MW（海上21,230MW）总中标量：86,243.85MW（海上23,225MW）总招标量：92,452.15MW（海上21,230MW）总中标量：86,243.85MW（海上23,225MW） For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com6风电：23年1-2月份风电招标量累计同比增长83%，保持高景气度资料来源：每日风电，HTI图：2022-23年招标及并网情况2023年1-2月份陆风招标合计超过18.8GW，同比增长86%，海风招标超过2.3GW，同比增长64%，23年风电招投标规模预计将超过22年，23-25年都将迎来装机高峰，维持高景气度。 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com7风电：我们预计23年陆风装机65GW，海上风电装机10GW资料来源：国家能源局，HTI图：海上风电新增及累计装机容量图：海上风电新增及累计装机容量根据国家能源局数据，2022年新增风电装机为37.63GW，其中陆上风电新增装机月33.63GW，2022年高招标量与装机量剪刀差较大，我们预计2023年剪刀差将收敛，23年新增装机有望达到65GW，同比增长94%。根据中电联数据，2022年海上风电新增装机为4.07GW，而2022年中标规模是12GW左右(不含框架），吊装5.16GW，23年我们预计新增装机10GW，同比增长146%，到2025年累计装机75.4GW。 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to thelatest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com8当前陆风全投资成本在6000元/kw左右，在1800小数下对应的IRR为9.32%，2021年中国风电平价利用小时数为2246小时，对于的IRR达到13%左右，产业链降本仍在继续，风电项目的经济性有望进一步提升。陆上风电已经全面实现平价上网，IRR普遍超过8%资料来源：HTI测算表：陆上风电敏感性分析内部收益敏感性分析（IRR）陆上年利用小时数(h)投资成本(元/kW)150016001700180019002000210022002300240025002600270028002900200030.35%32.63%34.92%37.21%39.50%41.79%44.09%46.39%48.69%50.99%53.29%55.60%57.90%60.21%62.51%250023.49%25.32%27.15%28.98%30.80%32.63%34.46%36.29%38.12%39.96%41.79%43.63%45.47%47.31%49.15%300018.90%20.43%21.97%23.49%25.02%26.54%28.06%29.59%31.11%32.63%34.16%35.68%37.21%38.73%40.26%350015.56%16.90%18.23%19.56%20.87%22.18%23.49%24.80%26.11%27.41%28.72%30.02%31.33%32.63%33.94%400013.01%14.21%15.40%16.57%17.74%18.90%20.05%21.20%22.35%23.49%24.64%25.78%26.92%28.06%29.21%450010.99%12.07%13.15%14.21%15.26%16.31%17.35%18.38%19.41%20.43%21.46%22.48%23.49%24.51%25.53%50009.32%10.32%11.31%12.29%13.26%14.21%15.16%16.10%17.04%17.97%18.90%19.82%20.74%21.66%22.58%55007.92%8.86%9.78%10.69%11.58%12.47%13.34%14.21%15.07%15.93%16.78%17.63%18.47%19.32%20.15%60006.72%7.60%8.47%9.32%10.16%10.99%11.80%12.61%13.41%14.21%15.00%15.79%16.57%17.35%18.12%65005.67%6.51%7.33%8.14%8.93%9.71%10.48%11.24%11.99%12.74%13.48%14.21%14.94%15.67%16.39%70004.75%5.55%6.33%7.10%7.85%8.59%9.32%10.04%10.75%11.45%12.15%12.84%13.53%14.21%14.89%75003.93%4.70%5.45%6.18%6.90%7.60%8.30%8.98%9.66%10.32%10.99%11.64%12.29%12.93%13.57%80003.20%3.93%4.65%5.35%6.04%6.72%7.38%8.04%8.68%9.32%9.95%10.57%11.19%11.80%12.41% For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and