期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金：震荡反弹 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 白银：继续反弹 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 铜：中国政策利好，支撑价格 ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 铝：陷入窄幅震荡，高位或仍相对有支撑 ............................................................................................................................... 7 锌：多空交织，高位震荡 ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 镍：进口资源紧缺，库存底部支撑 ........................................................................................................................................... 13 不锈钢：宏观提振预期，钢厂利润边际修复 ........................................................................................................................ 13 锡：震荡上行 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 铁矿石：预期支撑较强，高位震荡 ........................................................................................................................................... 17 螺纹钢：近端现货压制，高位震荡 ........................................................................................................................................... 19 热轧卷板：近端现货压制，高位震荡 ...................................................................................................................................... 19 硅铁：观望加剧，震荡延续 ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 锰硅：需求承压，驱动不足 ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 焦炭：三轮提涨开启，宽幅震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 23 焦煤：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 动力煤：需求仍有待释放，企稳运行 ...................................................................................................................................... 25 玻璃：短期反弹难持续 01合约仍偏弱 .................................................................................................................................. 26 PTA：不追空，警惕短期超跌反弹 ............................................................................................................................................ 27 MEG：反弹高度有限 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27 橡胶：震荡运行 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 沥青：跟随成本弱势运行 ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 LLDPE：中期趋势仍偏弱 ............................................................................................................................................................... 34 PP：中期趋势仍偏弱 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 35 纸浆：震荡运行 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 甲醇：短期不追空 趋势仍偏弱 .................................................................................................................................................. 39 尿素：现货有所转弱 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 41 苯乙烯：逢高空 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 43 纯碱：上方压力较大 ............................................................................................................................................................