ADB BRIEFSNO. 148AUGUST 2020ISBN 978-92-9262-318-0 (print)ISBN 978-92-9262-319-7 (electronic) ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (electronic)Publication Stock No. BRF200219-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF200219-2COVID-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances, and Recipient Households in Developing Asia1KEY POINTS• The economic recession from the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the job security and well-being of over 91 million international migrants from Asia and the Pacific.• Total remittances to Asia are expected to drop between $31.4 billion (baseline scenario) and $54.3 billion (worst-case scenario) in 2020, equivalent to 11.5% and 19.8% of baseline remittances, respectively. • With many households depending on international remittances in developing Asia—particularly in the Pacific and Central and West Asian economies—a sudden stop in remittance flow to these regions could push people into poverty. • Source and host countries of migrant workers are encouraged to extend temporary social protection programs to assist stranded and returned migrants; extend social protection to the poor including the remittance recipient households who fall back to poverty; design comprehensive immigration, health, and labor policies that enable migrants to return to jobs; and ensure the continuity of remittance services and enabling business environment.Aiko Kikkawa TakenakaEconomist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development BankRaymond GasparConsultant Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Asian Development BankJames VillafuerteSenior Economist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development BankBadri NarayananConsultant Economic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development BankINTRODUCTION: THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM ASIA AND THE PACIFICThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic risks devastating impact on economies around the world, including widespread unemployment and lower incomes. Toward the end of June 2020, workplace closures applied to 77% of country observations worldwide, albeit to a varying extent—9 countries still required strict closing of all but essential workplaces.2 Alongside the effects of the pandemic on international and domestic travel, trade, investment flows, and other productive activities, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates employment in Asia and the Pacific to be lower by as much as 167 million person months should containment measures last 6 months from when the outbreak first intensified (ADB 2020). Job cuts in the region are reducing wage income, with estimates of the decline projected to range from $359 billion to $550 billion. Migrant workers may be among the hardest hit groups.1 This brief was drafted under the overall guidance of Cyn-Young Park and benefited from the review and comments by Yasuyuki Sawada, Guntur Sugiyarto, and Kijin Kim. The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Aleli Rosario and Ma. Concepcion Latoja. 2 Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker. ADB BRIEFS NO. 1482Migrants originating from Asia and the Pacific account for 33% of migrant workers worldwide in 2019 (Figure 1a), the largest share. Major destination regions for Asian migrants included Asia (35%), the Middle East (27%), Europe inclusive of the Russian Federation (19%), and North America (18%). All of these regions have been devastated by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, with economic output in these economies projected to contract from 6.7% to 10.2% in 2020. Remittances to Asia and the Pacific, amounting to $315 billion in 2019, are an important and stable source of income for families back home and help strengthen external financing—alongside foreign direct investment and tourism receipts—in many developing economies (Figure 1b). They boost general consumption as well as investment and help sustain government debts by contributing to the foreign currency revenue base. In general, remittance inflows are considered countercyclical as migrants tend to send more funds to their families back home, 3 According to the International Energy Agency (IEA 2020), the global oil demand in April is estimated 29 million barrels per day lower than the previous year’s level.4 The June futures contracts for Brent oil plunged more than 20% on 21 April 2020 to below $20 a barrel, immediately translated into pressure on the ruble.who face economic shocks such as natural disasters (Halliday 2006, Yang 2008). Unlike the usual disasters and shocks with localized effect, however, the COVID-19 pandemic is simultaneously hurting migrant source and origin countries.Furthermore, the COVID-19 crisis has suppressed global demand for oil,3 causing the recent collapse in oil prices, an additional blow to petrol-heavy economies such as the Russian Federation4 and