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亚太地区投资策略耐心度过熊市坎坷的最后一段

金融2022-05-10摩根士丹利金***
亚太地区投资策略耐心度过熊市坎坷的最后一段

Laura.Wang@morganstanley.comJonathan.Garner@morganstanley.comDaniel.Blake@morganstanley.comFran.Chen@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Laura WangEQUITY STRATEGIST+852 2848-6853Jonathan F GarnerEQUITY STRATEGIST+852 2848-7288Daniel K BlakeEQUITY STRATEGIST+65 6834-6597Fran Chen, CFAEQUITY STRATEGIST+852 2848-7135China Equity Mid-Year OutlookChina Equity Mid-Year Outlook || Asia Pacific Asia PacificPatience through Bumpy FinalLeg of Bear MarketWe expect near-term market volatility to remain elevated,given the fluid situation domestically (Omicron) and globally(geopolitics, macro slowdown, QT kickoff). Policy easing cycleis forming, but timing and scale are contingent on Covidcontrol, implying likely front-loaded risks.MSCI China could be approaching the late stage of a bear market after a 14-month drawdown (51% down in absolute terms, 32% relative to MSCI EM sinceFeb 17, 2021), but the potential final leg is likely to be bumpy: Broadereconomic drag due to Omicron spread and subsequent restrictive measures implydownside-skewed earnings pressure and a capping effect of potential immediateChina policy easing. Meanwhile, external concerns, such as QT overlapped with agloomier global outlook and extended geopolitical tension, could also curb near-term re-rating opportunity. Our June 2023 base case index targets are arespective 70; 21,500; 7,330; and 4,300 for MSCI China, Hang Seng, HSCEI, andCSI300, suggesting 9%, 7%, 8%, and 10% upside vs. the 6 May market close.We take the latest Politburo meeting signals positively, but would stay equal-weight on Chinese equities within the global EM framework in the near term.We welcome recent policymakers' reference to easing measures stepping up, witha focus on infrastructure boost, potential relaxation of property purchaserestrictions and escrow fund access, and the positive role capitalplays/completion of regulatory reset. That said, our China equity frameworksuggests that the policy positives could be discounted by the aforementionedfactors, with downside risk more front-loaded in the near term.Signs to get more positive: 1) (sustainable) restoration of supply chain andconcrete measures to prevent Covid-disruption; roadmap of Covid-zerorelaxation would be a major plus;2) execution following the politburo announcements: easing step-up; positiveguidance for regulatory reset and private enterprises; stabilization efforts for theproperty sector;3) volatility getting priced in for geopolitical tension escalation and QT/recessionconcerns; stabilization of CNY weakness;4) US/China audit agreement and resumption of Chinese company offshore IPOs.Continue to prefer A-shares vs. offshore China given their better positioning tobenefit from potential easing in the near term, and alignment with long-termgrowth opportunities (IT, industrials, green economy, etc.). Latest official launchof personal pension scheme should also support institutional participation.See the next section for Sector preferences and Key trades for 2H2022.Exhibit 1:Morgan Stanley Research base, bull, and bearcase earnings estimates, valuations, and targets acrossChinese equity indices coverage - targets trimmed for allindices we coverDec-22Dec-23Jun-24Dec-22Dec-23Jun-2421,50022,6001,9302,1772,2642,0242,3112,4017%13%5%13%10%11%14%11%7,3307,6008018909178149229758%12%5%11%8%7%13%12%70755.96.77.16.37.37.59%17%8%14%12%15%16%11%4,3004,46031735537332237640010%14%10%12%11%12%17%15%2,41026,50029,2001,9722,2272,3392,0242,3112,40132%46%8%13%11%11%14%11%8,8209,70081391795381492297530%42%7%13%10%7%13%12%851006.06.97.36.37.37.533%56%10%15%13%15%16%11%5,3005,70032737339332237640036%46%14%14%12%12%17%15%17,00019,7001,8431,9592,0142,0242,3112,401-15%-2%1%6%6%11%14%11%5,8306,500769819838814922975-14%-5%1%6%6%7%13%12%55615.65.96.26.37.37.5-14%-5%3%6%7%15%16%11%3,4003,800295316327322376400-13%-3%3%7%7%12%17%15%MS Top-Down EPS YoY %Consensus EPS Forecast YoY %8.0x9.8x11.5x9.5x8.0x9.8x11.5x9.5x9.0x11.3xPrior MSTarget FwdP/E9.5x8.0x9.8xConsensus12m FwdP/E CurrentCSI3003,909Hang Seng20,0028.5x7.0xMSCI China648.9x10.4xHSCEI6,81020,00211.4xCSI3003,90913.5xHang Seng9.3x7.5xMSCI China6411.8x12.2x10.1x13.0x14.5xBear CaseHSCEI6,8109.3xCSI3003,90911.5x10.0x8.2x10.5x11.8xBull CaseIndexCurrent PriceMS TargetPriceJun-23Prior MSTarget(Dec-22)MS TargetFwd P/EJun-23Base CaseHSCEI6,8108.0xHang Seng20,0029.5xMSCI China6410.0x11.5xSource: MSCI, IBES, Bloomberg, FactSet, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Researchestimates. Data as of May 6, 2022.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity ofMorgan Stanley Research. Investors should considerMorgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are

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