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Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic

金融2022-05-13IMF球***
Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic Aleksandra Babii, Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Yorbol Yakhshilikov WP/22/92 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 MAY IMF WORKING PAPERS Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 1 © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/92IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic Prepared by Aleksandra Babii, Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Yorbol Yakhshilikov1 Authorized for distribution by Manuela Goretti May 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth. JEL Classification Numbers: F22, F24, O54 Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, migrant remittances, international migration Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: ABabii@imf.org, ACarare@imf.org, DVasilyev@imf.org, YYakhshilikov@imf.org 1 We are grateful to Patricia Alonso-Gamo, Bas Bakker, Edgar Cartagena, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Carlos Fernandez, Manuela Goretti, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Xiomara Hurtado, Sandra Marcelino, Gonzalo Salinas, and Alejandro Werner for helpful comments and discussions. We thank Sandra Marcelino, Pamela Madrid, and Mariana Sans for helping with obtaining country-level data, and CAPDR and Mexico central banks, especially central bank of El Salvador, for timely provision of detailed remittances data. We also thank participants of the Central American Monetary Council, the IMF Surveillance Meeting Seminar, and IMF WHD seminar for useful comments. We are grateful to Sean Thomas and to Soungbe Coquillat for excellent research and editorial assistance. All errors of the paper are of the authors. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents I. INTRODUCTION ___________________________________________________________ 3 II. LITERATURE REVIEW _____________________________________________________ 4 III. STYLIZED FACTS _________________________________________________________ 5 A. Migration and Remittances ___________________________________________________ 5 B. Evolution of Remittances ____________________________________________________ 6 C. Comparing Evolution of Remittances in 2020 with Previous Recessions ________________ 7 D. Comparing Evolution of Remittances in 2020 and 2021 with Other Regions _____________ 7 IV. EXPLAINING REMITTANCES DYNAMICS WITH A TRADITIONAL MODEL ___________ 8 A. Cross-Country Model of Remittances ___________________________________________ 8 B. Panel Vector Autoregression Model of Remittances _______________________________ 10 V. EXPLAINING REMITTANCES DYNAMICS BY DECOMPOSING AGGREGATE REMITTANCES ____________________________________________________________ 11 VI. EXPLAINING THE INCREASE IN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TO EL SALVADOR _______________________________________________________________ 14 A. Model and Data __________________________________________________________ 14 B. Estimation and Results _____________________________________________________ 16 C. Understanding the “Altruism” Motive: Home Factors ______________________________ 18 D. Understanding the “Altruism” Motive: Host Factors _______________________________ 18 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND PATH AHEAD ________________________________________ 21 REFERENCES _____________________________________________________________ 29 ANNEXES I. Alternative Measure of Economic ______________________________________________ 23 II. CARES Act’s Unemployment Insurance

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