证券代码：839979生猪期货早报2022-04-01投资咨询部1 每日观点1.基本面：新型变种新冠病毒仍旧散点频发，集中性消费受限；《十四五规划》指出要将猪肉产能稳定在5500万吨左右，能繁母猪控制在4100万头左右，不低于3700万头；市场主流对二次育肥仍持观望。养殖端：出栏整体积极性提升较高，亏损压力较大，部分出栏因疫情防控受阻，支撑挺价；受饲料原料价格上涨影响，近日猪粮价格上涨，且猪粮比已处于一级预警，国家已启动收储；2月底能繁母猪存栏缓慢递减，结合过高产能，本年度5、6月间恐难成为生猪出栏转折点；屠宰端：据钢联重点屠宰企业统计，屠宰量为142989头，较前日增0.43%，部分屠企提升备货，屠企开工率仍处低位，收猪不顺利；消费端：白条需求低迷。偏空。2.基差：3月31日，现货价12300元/吨，05合约基差-705元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。3.库存：截至12月31日，生猪存栏量44922万头，季度环比增加2.65%，年同比增10.5%；截至2022年2月底，能繁母猪存栏为4268.2万头，环比下降0.51%，较2021年6月下降了6.5%。偏空。4.盘面：MA20偏下，05合约期价收于MA20上方。中性。5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。6.预期：现货市场供仍远大于需，价格将持续下行；能繁母猪现存栏继续缓慢向下调整，预期对其产仔结构将持续优化；饲料原料成本上涨利空养殖利润，近期新冠疫情频发，限制消费；短期内市场供需博弈，建议在12863-13148区间操作。2 每日观点利多：猪粮比仍在一级警戒，收储将继续；部分屠企提升分割入库比例备货，屠宰量有提升；疫情管控升级，出栏量受控，支撑挺价；下月出栏计划缩减；清明备货或支撑猪价。利空：终端消费依旧乏力；屠企库存足，收猪不积极；新冠疫情多地散发，影响集中消费；能繁母猪存栏降幅偏小。主要逻辑：目前生猪供给短期内仍远大于需求，收储提振有限，但近期受疫情防控影响，物流受阻，略微支撑挺价；中期来看，饲料价格大涨，尤其是豆粕，将大幅降低养殖户补栏积极性，但且供给探底时间仍不明确，预估将长期处于供大于需。主要风险点：密切关注能繁母猪存栏，疫情防控。3 4类别指标现值前值涨跌涨跌幅类别指标现值前值涨跌涨跌幅01合约1917519100750.00全国12.312.260.040.00303合约1831518355-400.00四川12.5812.520.060.00505合约13005128951100.01湖南12.4612.360.10.00807合约15020148851350.01山东12.3512.290.060.00509合约17510173751350.01湖北12.1412.010.130.01111合约1834018270700.00广东13.1213.14-0.02-0.00201-6875-6840-350.01广西12.5212.53-0.01-0.00103-6015-609580-0.01黑龙江11.2511.29-0.04-0.00405-705-635-700.11江苏12.8312.640.190.01507-2720-2625-950.04贵州12.2212.160.060.00509-5210-5115-950.02重庆12.7512.620.130.01011-6040-6010-300.00吉林11.411.370.030.0031/38607451150.15山西12.0711.970.10.0081/561706205-35-0.01三元猪周均价（元/公斤）11.7211.83-0.11-0.011/741554215-60-0.01仔猪均价（头）298.1295.712.390.011/916651725-60-0.03二元母猪价（元/头）1595.711596.19-0.480.001/1183583050.01淘汰母猪价（元/公斤）7.47.47-0.07-0.013/553105460-150-0.032-3cm白条价格（元/公斤）15.3915.52-0.13-0.013/732953470-175-0.05自繁自养利润（周度）-549.21-547.16-2.050.003/9805980-175-0.18外购仔猪利润（周度）-287.03-258.05-28.980.113/11-2585-110-1.29猪粮比（周度）4.264.250.010.005/7-2015-1990-250.01猪料比（周度）3.153.17-0.02-0.015/9-4505-4480-250.01屠宰加工利润（元/头）-82.79-88.435.64-0.065/11-5335-537540-0.01日生猪屠宰量118022119292-1270-0.017/9-2490-249000.00周屠宰开工率（%）26.8826.60.280.017/11-3320-338565-0.02周鲜销率%85.0685.1-0.040.009/11-830-89565-0.07周冻品率%22.4521.570.880.04基差期货收盘价月间价差养殖利润各规格猪价屠宰与库存生猪出栏价一、生猪行情概览表1. 昨日行情概览 图1. 生猪期现基差走势图2. 生猪5-7、5-9合约价差走势5-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300040002021/5/272021/6/72021/6/172021/6/282021/7/72021/7/162021/7/272021/8/52021/8/162021/8/252021/9/32021/9/142021/9/272021/10/132021/10/222021/11/22021/11/112021/11/222021/12/12021/12/102021/12/212021/12/302022/1/112022/1/202022/2/72022/2/162022/2/252022/3/82022/3/172022/3/285-7、5-9合约价差（元/吨）5-7合约价差5-9合约价差一、生猪行情概览-部分合约基差及价差走势-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030001000015000200002500030000350002021/2/242021/3/92021/3/222021/4/22021/4/162021/4/292021/5/172021/5/282021/6/102021/6/242021/7/72021/7/202021/8/22021/8/132021/8/262021/9/82021/9/232021/10/132021/10/262021/11/82021/11/192021/12/22021/12/152021/12/282022/1/112022/1/242022/2/112022/2/242022/3/92022/3/22主力基差（元/吨）主力基差收盘价全国外三元毛猪收购价 图3. 2018-2022年外三元生猪、二元母猪、15kg仔猪及白条均价走势6二、生猪现货行情-各规格猪均价0204060801001202018/6/12018/6/272018/7/222018/8/152018/9/92018/10/82018/11/12018/11/262018/12/202019/1/162019/2/152019/3/122019/4/52019/4/292019/5/242019/6/192019/7/142019/8/72019/9/12019/9/252019/10/232019/11/172019/12/112020/1/62020/2/42020/2/282020/3/242020/4/192020/5/142020/6/82020/7/22020/7/272020/8/202020/9/142020/10/122020/11/52020/11/302020/12/242021/1/182021/2/172021/3/142021/4/82021/5/52021/5/302021/6/242021/7/192021/8/122021/9/62021/10/12021/10/312021/11/242021/12/192022/1/132022/2/132022/3/9全国外三元毛猪、二元母猪、15kg仔猪及白条收购价（元/千克）收购价:外三元毛猪:全国平均价:仔猪:全国白条二元母猪均价 图4. 2019-2022年全国7kg仔猪及淘汰母猪均价走势7二、生猪现货行情-各规格猪均价7kg仔猪均价周度走势淘汰母猪均价周度走势0200400600800100012001400160018002021/2/252021/3/112021/3/312021/4/82021/4/222021/5/82021/5/202021/6/32021/6/172021/7/12021/7/152021/7/292021/8/122021/8/262021/9/92021/9/232021/10/82021/10/212021/11/42021/11/182021/12/22021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/172022/3/42022/3/182022/3/310246810121416182021/2/252021/3/112021/3/312021/4/82021/4/222021/5/82021/5/202021/6/32021/6/172021/7/12021/7/152021/7/292021/8/122021/8/262021/9/92021/9/232021/10/82021/10/212021/11/42021/11/182021/12/22021/12/162021/12/302022/1/132022/1/272022/2/172022/3/42022/3/182022/3/31 三、生猪基本面分析-供给存栏截止12月31日，生猪存栏量44922万头，季度环比增加2.65%，年同比增10.5%；截至2022年2月底，能繁母猪存栏为4268.2万头，环比下降0.51%，较2021年6月下降了6.5%。能繁母猪存栏继续微降。图5. 2018-2021年月度生猪存栏及环比走势图6. 2018-2021年月度能繁母猪存栏及环比走势8-12-10-8-6-4-202468050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002018/6/302018/7/312018/8/312018/9/302018/10/312018/11/302018/12/312019/1/312019/2/282019/3/312019/4/302019/5/312019/6/302019/7/312019/8/312019/9/302019/10/312019/11/302020/6/302020/7/312020/8/312020/9/302020/10/312020/11/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/8/312021/9/302021/12/31生猪存栏生猪存栏环比(右轴)-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.0005001000150020002500300035004000450050002018/6/302018/8/312018/10/312018/12/312019/2/282019/4/302019/6/302019/8/312019/10/312019/12/312020/2/292020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5